June 30, 2022

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

Gas Markets

Market Watch

The bottom fell out of US gas futures Thursday as the August contract plunged $1.074, or 16.5%, to settle at $5.424 per million Btu – the lowest prompt-month close since late March. A much bigger-than-expected storage injection precipitated the sell-off mid-morning as the market “priced in the full impacts of a heavy reduction in the storage deficit to the five-year average,” Gelber & Associates analyst Shomik Sen told Energy Intelligence. Also Thursday, federal pipeline regulators said they found unsafe conditions at the Freeport LNG terminal in Texas and won’t approve a restart until an outside review is conducted. Freeport, offline since Jun. 8 after a fire, has said it hopes to restart in early September, but the findings cast doubt on that assumption, and Freeport late in the day said it now expects restart to begin in early October. The outage has cut roughly 2 billion cubic feet per day of gas demand. The 12-month strip fell 84.5¢ to $5.086; the 2023 strip was down 53.6¢ to $4.694 (Futures contracts).

WTI August crude futures sank $4.02 to $105.76/bbl.

* * *

Tenn Gas Zone 6 saw the most significant price move of the day, falling 1.14 to $6.39. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 16¢ at $6.52. In the Northeast, Transco zone 6 New York went down 58¢ to average $5.93, while Boston-area Algonquin declined 99¢ to average $6.53. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 24¢ to average $5.96. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 27¢ to $6.14, SoCal Citygate declined 61¢ to average $6.39. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 52¢ to $4.07 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The Energy Information Administration reported an 82 Bcf storage injection for the week ended Jun. 24, increasing net working gas inventories to 2,251 Bcf. That exceeded analysts' consensus expectations of a 74 Bcf build and compares to a year-ago and five-year average of 73 Bcf. Storage is now 322 Bcf, or 12.5%, below the five-year average. The deficit to last year fell to 296 Bcf, or 11.6%. Next week's data is expected to show a 72 Bcf injection versus a five-year average of 60 Bcf.

* * *

An expansion of Permian Highway Pipeline will move forward following a final investment decision reached this week by sponsor Kinder Morgan. The project is among several that are designed to move growing associated gas volumes from the Permian Basin to markets along the Gulf Coast. The expansion will add 550 million cubic feet per day of capacity to the 2.1 billion cubic foot per day pipeline from the Waha Hub to the Katy Hub near Houston. It would be achieved largely by adding compression and go into service by Nov. 1, 2023. “This expansion couldn’t come at a more critical time, as it will foster future natural gas production growth in West Texas and provide several liquefaction facilities along the Texas Gulf Coast with more affordable, reliable supply,” said Jamie Welch, President and CEO of Permian Highway co-sponsor Kinetik.

Everett Wheeler, Houston and Mark Davidson, Washington

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Transco Zone 4    Iroquois Zone 2AECOIroquoisAlgonquinTenn Gas Zone 6-16%-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%Transco Zone 4    Iroquois Zone 2AECOIroquoisAlgonquinTenn Gas Zone 6
Note: Jun 30' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (1), down (74).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jun. 30, 2022 / Flow Date: Jul. 1, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC05101520253035404550Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasKern River GasTransmission Co.Natural GasPipeline Co.NorthwestPipelineNOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jun 30, '22
Aug'22Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23($/MMBtu)44.555.566.577.588.59Aug'22Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23Jul'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jun 29 '22

Storage Report

North American Natural Gas Storage
Jun 30, '22
48%51%48%Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada(BCF)050010001500200025003000350040004500500055006000Lower 48CanadaLower 48 & Canada
Note: The value shown in the bars represents the percentage full.
North American Weekly Gas Storage
Sources: US-EIA. Canada-RBN Energy. Values in Bcf unless otherwise noted.


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jun 30 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jun 29 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
5494944431099964924847517443Jun 22Jun 23Jun 24Jun 25Jun 26Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30(MMcf/d)02004006008001000120014001600Jun 22Jun 23Jun 24Jun 25Jun 26Jun 27Jun 28Jun 29Jun 30NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
23 Jun 2224 Jun 2225 Jun 2226 Jun 2227 Jun 2228 Jun 2229 Jun 22400060008000100001200014000160001800023 Jun 2224 Jun 2225 Jun 2226 Jun 2227 Jun 2228 Jun 2229 Jun 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
21 Jun22 Jun23 Jun24 Jun25 Jun26 Jun27 Jun28 Jun29 Jun(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000900010000(MMcf/d)110012001300140015001600170018001900200021002200230021 Jun22 Jun23 Jun24 Jun25 Jun26 Jun27 Jun28 Jun29 JunCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23 Jun24 Jun25 Jun26 Jun27 Jun28 Jun29 Jun(MW)0200040006000800010000120001400016000(MMcf/d)5001000150020002500300035004000450020 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23 Jun24 Jun25 Jun26 Jun27 Jun28 Jun29 JunWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23 Jun24 Jun25 Jun26 Jun27 Jun28 Jun29 Jun(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)80090010001100120013001400150016001700180019002000210020 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23 Jun24 Jun25 Jun26 Jun27 Jun28 Jun29 JunPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
17818419317514616818418324 June25 June26 June27 June28 June29 June30 June1 July02040608010012014016018020024 June25 June26 June27 June28 June29 June30 June1 JulyCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -2°
Orlando 0°
Boston -2°
Washington -3°
Seattle 0°
Philadelphia -3°
Nashville 0°
Minneapolis 7°
Los Angeles 2°
Las Vegas 7°
Detroit 0°
Denver 3°
Austin 0°
Atlanta -2°
Southeast US
New York -2°
Orlando 0°
Boston -2°
Washington -3°
Seattle 0°
Philadelphia -3°
Nashville 0°
Minneapolis 7°
Los Angeles 2°
Las Vegas 7°
Detroit 0°
Denver 3°
Austin 0°
Atlanta -2°

Copyright Notice

Copyright © 2022 by Energy Intelligence Group, Inc. Gas Market Reconnaissance is a trademark of Energy Intelligence. All rights reserved. Access, distribution and reproduction are subject to the terms and conditions of the subscription agreement and/or license with Energy Intelligence. Access, distribution, reproduction or electronic forwarding not specifically defined and authorized in a valid subscription agreement or license with Energy Intelligence is willful copyright infringement. Additional copies of individual articles may be obtained using the pay-per-article feature offered at www.energyintel.com.


Sales: sales@energyintel.comCustomer Service: customerservice@energyintel.com