June 24, 2022

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

Gas Markets

Market Watch

July gas futures sagged a bit more Friday, ending the session down 1.9¢ at $6.22 per million Btu. The contract, which lost 72.4¢ for the week, recovered from a morning low of $6.021. Traders continue to factor in the impact of the 2 billion cubic foot per day outage at Freeport LNG and how that could improve the ability to narrow the gas storage deficit to the five-year average. The 12-month strip fell 5.6¢ to $5.867; the 2023 strip was down 12.2¢ to $5.12 (Futures contracts).

WTI August crude rose $3.35 to $107.62/bbl, down $1.94 for the week.

* * *

SoCal Border saw the most significant cash price move of the day, falling $1.27 to $6.42. SoCal Citygate declined $1.17 to average $6.56. This compared to benchmark Henry Hub cash prices that were down 65¢ at $5.82. In the Northeast, Boston-area Algonquin declined 7¢ to average $5.90. In West Texas, cash prices at the Permian's Waha Hub fell 63¢ to average $5.56. Meanwhile, Rockies leader Kern/Opal fell 59¢ to $5.79 and Northwest Sumas lost 31¢ to average $5.61. In Canada, Alberta benchmark Aeco fell 31¢ to $4.40 (Daily cash prices).

* * *

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas is paying to keep aging gas and coal capacity in the wings to help meet unusually high power loads. But the Texas grid manager’s increased reliance on buying reserve power and operating more conservatively has skewed price signals and fundamentally changed how the state’s wholesale power market functions, costing ratepayers about $1.5 billion this year, Carrie Bivens, a third-party consultant hired by the PUC to study Ercot operations, told state lawmakers. Public Utility Commission Chairman Peter Lake maintains that the temporary measures will ensure reliability until the agency finalizes changes to the wholesale power market next year.

* * *

Northeast gas-fired generation is expected to wane as offshore wind projects come on line later this decade. But now the offshore industry claims it is the endangered generation because of a US House of Representatives-approved bill. A letter sent this week to US Senate members by the American Clean Power Association takes aim at a provision of the Coast Guard Authorization Act of 2022 that would require crew members who work on US offshore energy projects to be American citizens or permanent residents or citizens of the same country where their vessel is flagged. Supporters of the provision say it would close a loophole that allows energy developers, from offshore wind to oil and gas, to keep down labor costs by hiring cheaper, non-US workers.

* * *

The US rig count climbed 13 to 753 last week, up 283 from a year ago. Gas-directed rigs climbed three to 157, up 57 from a year ago, while oil rigs climbed 10 to 594, up 222 from a year ago. The data show the bulk of the increase in year-over-year activity is in the Permian Basin, up 113 rigs to 349, followed distantly by the Eagle Ford Shale, up 40 to 72. The Haynesville Shale rig count is up 20 at 69.

* * *

Price Notice: Due to a withdrawn transaction by a data provider, Energy Intelligence is reporting no price at Transco Station 45 for trade day Jun. 22, 2022.

Everett Wheeler, Washington and Tom Haywood, Houston

Natural Gas Spot Prices

Top 5 Upward & Downward Price Movements
Tennessee Zone 4 313 poolTransco Z6 - Non-NYTransco Leidy LineTennessee Zone 4 300 leg, receiptsMillennium Pipeline Co., East ReceiptsEl Paso - South MainlineKern - Wheeler RidgeSoCal CitygateTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanSoCal Border-18%-16%-14%-12%-10%-8%-6%-4%-2%0%2%4%Tennessee Zone 4 313 poolTransco Z6 - Non-NYTransco Leidy LineTennessee Zone 4 300 leg, receiptsMillennium Pipeline Co., East ReceiptsEl Paso - South MainlineKern - Wheeler RidgeSoCal CitygateTranswestern Pipeline, San JuanSoCal Border
Note: Jun 24' 22 versus prior day price: points moving up (5), down (69).
Natural Gas Spot Prices
Trade Date: Jun. 24, 2022 / Flow Dates: Jun. 25-27, 2022
The above figures refer to volume-weighted averages for gas deals done today for tomorrow's flow, or weekend delivery on Friday trading, at each particular spot. Change reflects the difference from the previous published price. Composites reflect volume-weighted average for all deals done in the regional grouping. Daily Composite Spot Wellhead is a volume-weighted average for all producing area pipelines less gathering and processing costs. All prices are in $/MMBtu.

Critical Notices

Sort:
Count of Critical Notices in Last 7 Days
Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC051015202530354045505560Algonquin GasTransmissionColumbia GasTransmissionEl Paso NaturalGasNatural GasPipeline Co.NOVA GasTransmission LtdTennessee GasPipeline Co.Texas EasternTransmissionTranscoTranswesternPipelineCompany, LLC
Critical Notices

Natural Gas Futures

Nymex Henry Hub Future Price Curves
Jun 24, '22
Jul'22Aug'22Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23($/MMBtu)4.555.566.577.588.59Jul'22Aug'22Sep'22Oct'22Nov'22Dec'22Jan'23Feb'23Mar'23Apr'23May'23Jun'23CurrentLast Month
Henry Hub
Change from prior day, Jun 23 '22

Baker Hughes Rig Count

Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count
7 Jan 2214 Jan 2221 Jan 2228 Jan 22 4 Feb 2211 Feb 2218 Feb 2225 Feb 22 4 Mar 2211 Mar 2218 Mar 2225 Mar 22 1 Apr 22 8 Apr 2215 Apr 2222 Apr 2229 Apr 22 6 May 2213 May 2220 May 2227 May 22 3 Jun 2210 Jun 2217 Jun 2224 Jun 22 1 Jul 22 8 Jul 2215 Jul 2222 Jul 2229 Jul 22 5 Aug 2212 Aug 2219 Aug 2226 Aug 22 2 Sep 22 9 Sep 2216 Sep 2223 Sep 2230 Sep 22 7 Oct 2214 Oct 2221 Oct 2228 Oct 22 4 Nov 2211 Nov 2218 Nov 2225 Nov 22 2 Dec 22 9 Dec 2216 Dec 2223 Dec 2230 Dec 2260708090100110120130140150160 7 Jan 2214 Jan 2221 Jan 2228 Jan 22 4 Feb 2211 Feb 2218 Feb 2225 Feb 22 4 Mar 2211 Mar 2218 Mar 2225 Mar 22 1 Apr 22 8 Apr 2215 Apr 2222 Apr 2229 Apr 22 6 May 2213 May 2220 May 2227 May 22 3 Jun 2210 Jun 2217 Jun 2224 Jun 22 1 Jul 22 8 Jul 2215 Jul 2222 Jul 2229 Jul 22 5 Aug 2212 Aug 2219 Aug 2226 Aug 22 2 Sep 22 9 Sep 2216 Sep 2223 Sep 2230 Sep 22 7 Oct 2214 Oct 2221 Oct 2228 Oct 22 4 Nov 2211 Nov 2218 Nov 2225 Nov 22 2 Dec 22 9 Dec 2216 Dec 2223 Dec 2230 Dec 22202020212022
Gas Rigs by Basin
Rig Count as of Jun 24 '22. Source: Baker Hughes


Related Markets

Comparative Fuels

Comparative Fuels
Prices for Jun 24 '22

Spot Cash Electricity Prices

Spot Cash Electricity Prices
Today's prices as of Jun 23 '22

Gas Needed to Replace Offline Nuclear Capacity

Gas Needed to Replace Off Line Nuclear Capacity
11111062925892803583549494443Jun 16Jun 17Jun 18Jun 19Jun 20Jun 21Jun 22Jun 23Jun 24(MMcf/d)020040060080010001200140016001800Jun 16Jun 17Jun 18Jun 19Jun 20Jun 21Jun 22Jun 23Jun 24NortheastSoutheastTexasUpper MidwestWestTotalYear-Ago
Note: Source: US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Daily Power Reactor Status Report and Energy Intelligence,Historical data available via EI New Energy Data

Gas Prices, Power Prices and Spark Spreads for Major Hubs

Marginal Heat Rates (Btu/kWh)
17 Jun 2218 Jun 2219 Jun 2220 Jun 2221 Jun 2222 Jun 2223 Jun 22200040006000800010000120001400016000180002000022000240002600017 Jun 2218 Jun 2219 Jun 2220 Jun 2221 Jun 2222 Jun 2223 Jun 22Malin/COBSocal/Palo VerdeAlgonquin/NE PoolHouston SC - Katy/ErcotStanfield/Mid-Col.TZ6 NNY/PJM W
Note: Indicates the threshold heat rate for each gas/power pair. Below the MHR, gas-fired generation may be more cost effective vs. purchased power above. For holidays and weekends, the previous business day's values are displayed.
Gas, Power Prices & Spark Spreads for Generators Major Hubs

Renewable Energy

Gas Equivalent of Caiso Wind and Solar Output
15 Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23 Jun(MW)010002000300040005000600070008000900010000(MMcf/d)110012001300140015001600170018001900200021002200230015 Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23 JunCAISO Solar PVCAISO Solar ThermalCAISO WindTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of Ercot Wind Output
14 Jun15 Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23 Jun(MW)02000400060008000100001200014000160001800020000220002400026000(MMcf/d)500100015002000250030003500400045005000550014 Jun15 Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23 JunWind Generation (MW)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d)Gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data



Gas Equivalent of PJM Renewable Output
14 Jun15 Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23 Jun(MW)0100020003000400050006000700080009000(MMcf/d)80090010001100120013001400150016001700180019002000210014 Jun15 Jun16 Jun17 Jun18 Jun19 Jun20 Jun21 Jun22 Jun23 JunPJM SolarPJM HydroPJM WindPJM Other RenewablesTOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d)TOTAL gas equivalent (MMcf/d) - Last Year
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data
Note: Historical data available via EI New Energy Data




Weather

Today's Short-Term Weather Forecast

Atlanta
Austin
Denver
Detroit
Las Vegas
Los Angeles
Minneapolis
Nashville
Philadelphia
Seattle
Washington
Boston
Orlando
New York
Leaflet | Weather from OpenWeatherMap
To change the layers on the map, click the icon to the left and choose the layer you want to display.
Layers available on weather map:
  • Temperature:
    Current ground temperature(in Fahrenheit).
  • Clouds:
    Displays the positions of the current cloud cover.
  • Precipitation:
    Displays current amount of falling water in liquid, sleet or snow form (in inches).
  • Wind speed:
    Displays the current wind speed(in knots).
  • Sea Level Pressure:
    Displays the current pressure at sea level(in millibars).
  • Snow:
    Displays the daily snow fall(in inches).
  • Rain:
    Displays today’s amount of rain fall(in inches).

Degree Days

Degree Days
14713115916216916416817618 June19 June20 June21 June22 June23 June24 June25 June02040608010012014016018018 June19 June20 June21 June22 June23 June24 June25 JuneCDDHDDCDD AvgHDD Avg
Note: Cooling Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances above 65 degrees for 14 cities: Atlanta, Georgia, Austin, Texas, Denver, Colorado, Detroit, Michigan, Las Vegas, Nevada, Los Angeles, California, Minneapolis, Minnesota, Nashville, Tenn, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Seattle, Washington, Washington, DC, Boston, Massachusetts, Orlando, Florida, New York, New York. Heating Degree Days is the sum of temperature variances below 65 degrees for those same 14 cities.
Degree Days


Regional °F Degree Day Differentials
Values listed are the previous days' difference from the 5-year degree day average.

Ex: A value of -4° indicates previous days' degree days were 4 degrees below the 5-year average.

Northeast US
New York -4°
Orlando 3°
Boston -6°
Washington -3°
Seattle -3°
Philadelphia -1°
Nashville 4°
Minneapolis 14°
Los Angeles 5°
Las Vegas -1°
Detroit 4°
Denver 6°
Austin 7°
Atlanta 2°
Southeast US
New York -4°
Orlando 3°
Boston -6°
Washington -3°
Seattle -3°
Philadelphia -1°
Nashville 4°
Minneapolis 14°
Los Angeles 5°
Las Vegas -1°
Detroit 4°
Denver 6°
Austin 7°
Atlanta 2°

Copyright Notice

Copyright © 2022 by Energy Intelligence Group, Inc. Gas Market Reconnaissance is a trademark of Energy Intelligence. All rights reserved. Access, distribution and reproduction are subject to the terms and conditions of the subscription agreement and/or license with Energy Intelligence. Access, distribution, reproduction or electronic forwarding not specifically defined and authorized in a valid subscription agreement or license with Energy Intelligence is willful copyright infringement. Additional copies of individual articles may be obtained using the pay-per-article feature offered at www.energyintel.com.


Sales: sales@energyintel.comCustomer Service: customerservice@energyintel.com