May 2, 2022

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

US in February Shows Lower Demand, Supply Than Thought

  • Monthly US data shows February demand for oil and petroleum products coming in well below the weekly forecast.

  • Oil supply for the month wound up 700,000 b/d lower than the Energy Intelligence forecast.

  • Countrywide demand in February was 1.2 million b/d lower than weekly Energy Information Administration data had suggested.

US monthly data displayed another sobering start for 2022. Oil consumption turned out to be lower than previously believed as the Omicron variant and high inflation weighed on mobility and consumer spending, according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.

The nation’s oil consumption in February, the EIA said in the latest Petroleum Supply Monthly, amounted to 20.44 million b/d, as opposed to expectations of 21.65 million b/d shown in the agency's weekly data. This same large downward adjustment follows January data, where monthly demand was measured 1.9 million b/d short of weekly numbers.

For February, the lower estimate for domestic consumption is the result of underestimated exports of crude oil and refined products — just as in January.

In lieu of consumption at home, as the EIA had assumed, the US exported 500,000 b/d more crude than initially seen, or 3.3 million b/d, and 700,000 b/d more products for a total 5.7 million b/d. Crude oil exports in February were again above 3 million b/d for the fourth straight month (see table).

The risk of overestimating is increasingly apparent. The market is forward looking and less concerned about historic data, but the monthly demand data have now been below weekly estimates by an average of 700,000 b/d for eight months straight. EIA weekly data preliminarily sees demand for March at 20.63 million b/d and for April at 19.2 million b/d, so far.

Delayed Leap

US oil supply is forecast to post robust growth for 2022, but one couldn't tell from February numbers. EIA data showed February crude production down 60,000 b/d from January at 11.3 million b/d. This is 450,000 b/d lower than our forecast.

Natural gas liquids (NGLs) managed an uptick to 5.75 million b/d, but still 250,000 b/d lower than forecast. Energy Intelligence expects US crude at grow 760,000 b/d on the year in 2022 and NGLs to add 375,000 b/d.

Including biofuels, condensates and other products, US liquids supply is forecast to grow by 1.17 million b/d for the year.

Net Exporter

EIA data showed that the US was a net exporter of crude and refined products in February — the fifth straight month.

In February, the US was a net exporter of 551,000 b/d thanks to inventory draws, which totaled 34 million barrels, or 1.3 million b/d in February.

The US drained crude inventories by 15 million bbl in February, of which 10 million bbl were withdrawn from the strategic petroleum reserve. Product inventories fell 19 million bbl on the month.

US Crude Oil Exports, February 2022
MonthlyMonthlyAvg.Avg.
('000 b/d)Feb'22Feb'2120192018
All Destinations3,3092,7032,9822,048
India744620255151
Netherlands418286279132
Korea381360419242
Canada372426479440
United Kingdom269243244167
China228780137231
Singapore19607843
Italy188133128108
Taiwan17652169131
Switzerland163024
Spain127264722
France106798823
Germany10077273
Thailand7911210938
Uruguay580155
Dominican Republic38181410
Australia270410
Norway26262435
Peru2626287
Denmark25263517
Ireland24434313
Brazil20324825
Colombia20201824
Nicaragua1013116
Belgium1040
Lithuania05320
Other-513-74600
US Petroleum Product Exports, February 2022
Total ProductsTotal ProductsLPG & Pents+LPG & Pents+MogasMogasJet KeroJet KeroDistillatesDistillatesResidsResidsPet CokePet CokeOtherOther
('000 b/d)Feb'22Feb'21Feb'22Feb'21Feb'22Feb'21Feb'22Feb'21Feb'22Feb'21Feb'22Feb'21Feb'22Feb'21Feb'22Feb'21
All Destinations5,6934,9592,2512,175845714166681,036866129116609457657563
Mexico1,1131,0852082074844534918251233121444976464
Canada46151725636120163415651724131211584
Japan5183574622970000000043361224
China4272582851410000000014211215
Brazil2653190282933007184005843107133
Indonesia32146321330000013000000
India215179123157000000006652716
Korea17711915558000061200001649
Chile1641296213213184837901117082
Peru163850952113010459000046
Netherlands218108766800002600915510126
Dominican Republic83383121801411321077621
Panama136110721923118665633120019
Guatemala10712401459741237280010611
Ecuador8864321932110015180071621
Colombia1235020112200711100003918
Honduras4063817918617270010000
Costa Rica7146962211732519007423
Spain4541352500000000101700
Egypt458458000000000000
France425841360000000001813
Morocco634444390000000020500
Singapore871522737000028791521110614
El Salvador3840611151610770010600
United Kingdom57494719050001200021012
Bahama Islands592011211728102700000
Other856748315440538201119411316181216813792
US Crude Oil Imports, February 2022
CanadaMexicoSaudi ArabiaIraqColombiaBrazilEcuadorGrand Total
('000 b/d)Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21
Phillips 6655347567936436--12---13-869744
BP546465--------153015-574516
Marathon279270183618-80---52-52-573329
Chevron36381011046989131348187---20496630
Exxon Mobil374471-------18----374489
PBF Energy8511653355938--361335-3556351259
Flint Hills304296------------304296
Motiva5643--22071--------276188
Valero-5205110--2452--35-35-264182
Houston Refining7828583813---7171----233137
Cenovus Energy23083------------23083
PDV Midwest Refining166151------------166151
Monroe Energy--------------12134
Holly Refining and Marketing117100------------117100
Suncor113106------------113106
Top 152,9362,6485014174432332358720018913630149765,0614,243
Total Companies3,8253,605573534443258235121228225136471231116,1545,589
Total Imports3,8253,604573534443258235121228225136471231116,1545,589
US Petroleum Product Imports, February 2022
CanadaRussiaMexicoSouth KoreaNetherlandsSaudi ArabiaUnited KingdomGrand Total
('000 b/d)Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21
Motor Gasoline160192323910-25135264-76146581599
Other Oils26253332988748209-18-0-515475
Middle Distillates1581737721--2314212533--416388
Residual Fuel Oil1627603910830--6-----302155
LPG/Chemicals216229---1--------243242
Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel712----7589--4---109113
Asphalt6233------------6436
Lubricants9120---17531----4737
Petroleum Coke01----------0-1914
Grand Total6547035033982057912013811277741062462,2972,059
Total Companies6547035033981207912013811277741062462,2972,059
Total Imports6537035033982057912013811277741062462,2972,059
US Petroleum Product Imports, February 2022
CanadaRussiaMexicoSouth KoreaNetherlandsSaudi ArabiaUnited KingdomGrand Total
('000 b/d)Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21Feb '22Feb '21
Valero686617116812121113-64-411287323
Exxon Mobil981485822---3118-18-285162
Irving Oil244219------------244219
Shell4-18-----85-----157-
Vitol-102822----0-----8757
Phillips 662217297-111------7866
Chevron---3034112-------7463
PBF Energy---207222--------7251
Atlantic Trading--710----6926-26-7136
BP919-5--01181926126-65126
Motiva--3521--7-------4321
Gunvor51435----18------4243
Glencore--------------4216
PMI Trading----3923--------3923
George E. Warren Corp--6-10---4-----384
Top 153393384653641956721521063574174111,6241,209
Total Companies6547035033982057912013811277741062462,2972,059
Total Imports6537035033982057912013811277741062462,2972,059

John van Schaik, New York