April 26, 2022

WWW.ENERGYINTEL.COM

Russia Plans Big on Seaborne Exports in May

  • Russia intends to keep drafting ambitious export schedules despite outcries about its ongoing war effort in Ukraine.

  • Port loading programs for May are penciled in at just under 2.8 million b/d, down a mere 85,000 b/d from April's preliminary schedule.

  • Rosneft is changing tactics and tendering crude for two months while also trying to get offtakers to pay in rubles.

Russia has put together an ambitious seaborne oil loading program for May, one aiming to show that the increasingly loud calls from the West to cease buying, and even boycotting, the country's barrels are more bark than bite.

Port loading programs obtained by Energy Intelligence show that Russian seaborne exports, excluding transshipments from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, are penciled in at 2.8 million barrels for May, a minor decrease of 84,700 barrels per day from the same flows earmarked for April.

The program is up by almost 900,000 b/d from May 2021, the result of a rollback of Opec-plus restrictions.

In the two months since the war in Ukraine started, Russian companies have been successful in selling their barrels to global markets. Majors like BP, Shell, TotalEnergies and Equinor, as well as trading firms such as Trafigura, Vitol and Glencore, have said they would not sign new offtake agreements for Russian crude and instead wind down purchases. The US has already imposed an embargo on Russian barrels and is lobbying Europe to follow suit.

But prices are winning out. As discounts for Urals hover around $40 per barrel, Russian companies have managed to stick to their export targets. Current offtake contracts, after all, remain in place, while China and India are snapping up relatively cheap Russian barrels. To be sure, most market players insist that traditional patterns are rapidly disintegrating; but for now, however, no new ones have emerged.

Russian Crude Oil Loading Schedules, May 2022
('000 tons or b/d)May '22 (tons)May '22 (b/d)Apr '22 (tons)Apr '22 (b/d)Chg. (b/d)May '21 (tons)May '21 (b/d)Ann. Chg. (b/d)
Baltic Sea
Primorsk4,3001,0154,2001,025-9.43,100732283.4
Ust-Luga2,7006382,700659-21.31,800425212.5
Total7,0001,6536,9001,684-30.74,9001,157495.9
Black Sea
Novorossiysk2,6316212,675653-31.41,837434187.5
Total2,6316212,675653-31.41,837434187.5
Sea Of Okhotsk
Kozmino3,3007793,10075622.82,740647132.2
Total3,3007793,10075622.82,740647132.2
Russian Total11,8502,79811,8152,883-84.78,0401,898899.7
Grand Total12,9313,05312,6753,093-39.39,4772,238815.6

Kozmino Rising

Last month's program presumed total seaborne exports of 2.88 million b/d, and market sources say that for the most part it will be fully executed. Only one or two cargoes will fall by the wayside. Data from Kpler show that in Apr. 1-22, Russian loadings from Baltic and Black Sea ports averaged 2.14 million b/d, up from 1.84 million b/d in March.

Total Russian exports, including those via pipeline and non-Transneft outlets, could amount to 5.2 million b/d this month, Energy Intelligence calculates.

In May, Russian exports from the Baltics have been penciled in at 1.65 million b/d, down slightly from 1.68 million b/d for April. Black Sea exports should total 621,000 b/d in May, down from 653,000 b/d penciled in for April.

In the east, shipments from Kozmino have been penciled in at a healthy 779,000 b/d, up from 756,000 b/d in April.

Rosneft Tender

Russian producers are encountering difficulties with placing their crude, and in response they are trying to forge new export patterns.

For example, Rosneft recently offered some 6.5 million metric tons (47.6 million bbl) of crude for lifting in May and June in an unusual two-month tender. The tender was for Urals, Siberian Light, Espo and Sokol grades.

However, the offer was by and large a failure, although not entirely. Rosneft, Russia's largest producer, sought payment in rubles and had asked for full payment before delivery.

The major did leave some room for negotiation, agreeing to accept payments in other currencies, including dollars, euros, yuan, the Turkish lira and the UAE dirham. Still, initially the terms were believed to be too hard to meet, although sources say that Rosneft managed to find interested parties, especially in the Asia-Pacific region. This, in turn, could pave the way for direct negotiations on an individual basis.

In fact, direct negotiations are becoming the new normal for Russian firms, sources say. Such an approach appeals to buyers aiming to maintain a low profile, market players say.

Primorsk Crude Oil Loading Program, May 2022
DatePosition Holder (Producer)Vol.*
30-1Rosneft100
1-2Lukoil100
2-3Rosneft100
3-4Surgutneftegas100
3-4Rosneft100
4-5Lukoil100
5-6Rosneft100
5-6Surgutneftegas100
6-7Gazprom Neft100
7-8Rosneft100
7-8Lukoil100
8-9Surgutneftegas100
9-10Lukoil100
10-11Rosneft100
10-11Surgutneftegas100
11-12Rusvietpetro 100
12-13Lukoil100
12-13Tatneft100
13-14Rosneft100
14-15Surgutneftegas100
15-16Lukoil100
15-16Gazprom Neft100
16-17Rosneft100
17-18Surgutneftegas100
17-18Rosneft100
18-19Surgutneftegas100
19-20Rosneft100
19-20Tatneft100
20-21Lukoil100
21-22Rosneft100
22-23Rusvietpetro 100
22-23Neftisa100
23-24Surgutneftegas100
24-25Zarubezhneft-Dobycha Kharyaga 100
25-26Surgutneftegas100
25-26Gazprom Neft100
26-27Rosneft100
27-28Small producers100
27-28Lukoil100
28-29NNK-Northern Oil100
29-30Rusvietpetro Zarubezhneft-Dobycha Kharyaga 100
30-31Rosneft100
30-31Lukoil100
Total4,300
Ust-Luga Crude Oil Loading Program, May 2022
DatePosition Holder (Producer)Vol.*
30-1Rosneft100
2-3Kaztransoil 100
3-4Surgutneftegas100
4-5Rosneft100
5-6Kaztransoil (Apr - 30; May - 70)100
6-7Surgutneftegas100
7-8Rosneft100
8-9Kaztransoil 100
9-10Rosneft100
10-11Surgutneftegas100
11-12Rosneft100
12-13Surgutneftegas100
13-14Neftisa100
15-16NNK-Orenburgneftegas100
16-17Rosneft100
17-18Surgutneftegas100
18-19Kaztransoil 100
19-20Rosneft100
21-22Surgutneftegas100
22-23Rosneft100
23-24Kaztransoil 100
24-25NNK-Samaraneftegas100
26-27Neftisa100
27-28Surgutneftegas100
28-29Rosneft100
29-30Russneft100
30-31Kaztransoil 100
Total2,700
Novorossiysk Crude Oil Loading Program, May 2022
Berth 1
DatePosition Holder (Producer)Vol.*
9-10Surgutneftegas140
11-12Rosneft145
14-15Salym Petroleum140
16-17Kaztransoil (Samara-Novorossiysk) (75) Kaztransoil (Makhachkala-Novorossiysk) (65)140
19-20Gazprom Neft140
21-22Rosneft145
24-25Surgutneftegas140
26-27Rosneft145
30-31Kaztransoil (Samara-Novorossiysk) (21) Kaztransoil (Makhachkala-Novorossiysk) (119)140
Berth 1a
3-4Rosneft80†
5-6Turkmenistan transit36†
6-7Socar85†
10-11Lukoil80†
12-13Lukoil90
13-14Russneft80†
15-16Nyaganneft80†
17-18Lukoil90
18-19Rosneft80†
20-21Lukoil80†
22-23Kaztransoil (Samara-Novorossiysk) 80
23-24Lukoil80†
25-26Lukoil80†
27-28Lukoil90
28-29Lukoil80†
29-30Rosneft85
30-31Lukoil80†
Total2,631

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