This Quarterly Risk Outlook examines the major investment, geopolitical and energy transition-related risks shaping the global operating environment this quarter and beyond. In Latin America, frustration with stagnating economic conditions is helping to drive major electoral shifts and protests. Positively, Tanzania’s renewed efforts to boost oil and gas investment are bearing fruit. Wagner’s failed mutiny in Russia, Iraq’s new budget and protests in Senegal are among key aboveground risk drivers elsewhere. Geopolitical risks in this outlook include rising Opec-plus tensions, Iran’s diplomatic detente and the Sudan conflict. Meanwhile, as green investments grow, implementation bottlenecks are shaping up to be a major transition risk driver.

Energy Intelligence’s latest Macroeconomic Outlook focuses on the impact of the uncertain economic recovery on aboveground risk. Critically, inflation and rising borrowing costs weighed on advanced economies, but the tide may be turning as rate hikes slow, inflation cools and economic data remains robust. In Asia, China’s re-opening and supportive policies will boost growth, with positive spillovers. Yet the picture in Latin America and Africa is less rosy and debt concerns are mounting. Meanwhile, Russia’s surprisingly resilient economy faces growing headwinds as revenues fall, war costs rise, and new sanctions take effect. For producers, high hydrocarbon revenues improved the economic outlook, but disincentivized key reforms.

This Risk Outlook examines the investment, geopolitical and energy transition-related risks shaping the global oil and gas operating environment in 2023 and beyond. Growing oil theft and fears of political violence ahead of Nigerian elections as well as economic developments and warming regional relations in Turkey are highlighted. Norway’s frontier exploration limitations, Mozambican and Tanzanian LNG development and the volatile political climates in the UK and Peru are also covered. Meanwhile, Opec-plus dynamics and the impacts of Israel’s election on nascent Arab ties are, among others, major geopolitical risk factors. Meanwhile, COP27 and elections in Brazil are two of the most important transition risk drivers.

Many hydrocarbon producers are making policy progress to fight climate change and prepare for the energy transition, despite major global macroeconomic and energy market headwinds. Elections in Australia, Brazil and Colombia saw victories by new, more climate friendly governments, while new US policy could reduce emissions. COP27 saw several new net-zero pledges and emissions reduction targets, with methane a particular focus. However, many key challenges remain, including questions about financing that will have to be addressed if countries are to meet their ambitious goals.

This Quarterly Risk Outlook examines the major investment, geopolitical and energy transition-related risks shaping the global oil and gas operating environment in Q3’22 and beyond. Iraq’s spiraling political crisis – including the growing likelihood of disruptions to oil and gas activities – and Kenya’s disputed elections are both highlighted as well as other key risk aboveground risk drivers. Iran nuclear talks and rising tensions in Asia are key geopolitical risk factors. Meanwhile, policy developments in the US, Brazil and Australia impact the outlook for energy transition risks and opportunities this quarter.

Energy Intelligence’s latest Macroeconomic Outlook examines economic headwinds—such as inflation and recession fears—and their impact on the global recovery and aboveground risk. Europe’s energy crisis may trigger a recession, while US interest rate hikes threaten to exacerbate capital outflows and debt crises in emerging markets. In Asia, inflation is a key driver of South Asian political volatility, while concerns about China’s economy proliferate. In Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, these developments are weighing on what was a strong recovery. For major producers, high oil prices are a boon, but many cannot fulfill their Opec-plus quotas, limiting upside.

Gustavo Petro’s election as Colombia’s first left-wing president is raising aboveground risks and uncertainty for the oil sector. Elected on a platform to eradicate inequality and embrace the energy transition, Petro wants major reforms to the tax code and the agriculture, health, education and energy sectors. Facing a minority in Congress and strong judicial checks, compromise will likely prove necessary. Despite moderating his tone, Petro’s goal to raise taxes and wind down oil exploration threatens Colombia's supportive fiscal and regulatory environment. Proposed policy changes may also prompt further downgrades in Colombia’s Country Risk Index scores if his more radical proposals are enacted.

This Quarterly Risk Outlook examines the major investment, geopolitical and energy transition-related risks shaping the global oil and gas operating environment in Q2’22 and beyond. The aboveground investment risk impact of intensifying disputes about the governance of the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) oil sector and the death of UAE President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahyan are both highlighted. Elsewhere, the latest iteration of Libya’s long-running political saga, Hezbollah’s losses in Lebanese elections, Brazilian regulatory instability and Romania’s changes to its offshore law, among others, are key risk drivers. Geopolitically, the knock-on effects of the war in Ukraine—ranging from Caucasian stability and Russia’s Africa strategy to Chinese and India foreign policy—are a key focus of this quarterly. The impacts of the war in Ukraine—alongside Colombian and Australian elections—is also one of the main drivers of transition risk this quarter.

This Quarterly Risk Outlook examines the major investment, geopolitical and energy transition-related risks shaping the global oil and gas operating environment in Q1’22 and beyond. As is often the case, political developments are driving the investment risk outlook, led by unrest in Kazakhstan and delayed elections in Libya. Elsewhere, Turkey’s economic woes and elections in Australia, Angola, Brazil, Colombia and the US, among others, will be key aboveground risk drivers in 2022. Tensions with Russia over Ukraine—including the possibility of military action—is the key geopolitical risk, while the US-Iran negotiations, China’s economy and a softening of Turkey’s assertive foreign policy will also be important factors. Meanwhile from a transition risk perspective, government efforts to reduce oil and gas emissions—through efforts like enhanced support for carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the increased use of low-carbon power to fuel upstream operations—are a welcome development.

Fighting climate change will have profound impacts on oil and gas producer states. They must make their oil and gas sectors as productive and attractive as possible to capture medium- and long-term investment, while limiting their carbon footprint and diversifying their economy and sources of government revenue. Key producing states are highly exposed to the effects of the energy transition. The future decline in oil and gas revenues threatens their economic growth and, in some cases, political stability. Our new Transition Risk Index is a tool for assessing which states are adapting well and which are more vulnerable. The index assesses and quantifies the resiliency of 30 key producers and the effectiveness of their adaptation initiatives. A high score indicates higher risk, lower resilience and/or slow adaptation. As well as highlighting risk, the index aims to help producer states and other stakeholders identify potential policies and strategies for a successful energy transition plan.