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  • Drilling activity in 2022 has continued apace, with 17 high-impact discoveries recorded in October-November 2022, in comparison to 13 during the same period in 2021. Higher oil and gas prices have encouraged select companies to proceed with advantaged exploration targets. We expect continued but selective exploration capital allocation in 2023, targeting both new and traditional plays in upcoming drilling plans.
    Tue, Nov 29, 2022
  • Competitive Intelligence Research is pleased to share the Executive Summary findings from this year's Top 100: Global NOC & IOC Rankings. “More supply” has been a key rallying cry as the energy crisis deepens. However, the latest Energy Intelligence Top 100 report show a post-pandemic oil and gas industry still wrestling with strategic direction. Saudi Aramco, NIOC, CNPC and Exxon Mobil retain the first, second, third and fourth spots, respectively. Consolidation centered in, but not limited to, North America, and price-related reserve growth have opened space in the Top 100 for both new and returning companies in this latest ranking. Still, the Russia-Ukraine war has only amplified post-pandemic recovery imbalances and underinvestment across all fuels. It has also further illuminated the difficulty in finding quick solutions compatible with longer-term transition strategies.
    Mon, Nov 14, 2022
  • BP posted recent peer group-leading earnings, but its exit from a stake in Russia’s Rosneft is a near-term complication in the corporate strategy. As it shifts to become an international energy company, BP’s new corporate strategy reflects a bet on an accelerated transition. It is the only Supermajor to commit to a meaningful reduction in oil and gas output by 2030, and is also pursuing a $25 billion divestment program which will fund its low-carbon build-out. Yet, despite its industry-leading transition ambitions, BP’s future value proposition is generating investor concern over the profitability of the low-carbon units. Low-carbon Ebitda for 2021 came in at $1.6 billion — once again missing BP’s $2.1 billion target — with little certainty that clean hydrogen and biofuels ambitions will prove profitable this decade.
    Mon, Oct 17, 2022
  • Upstream deal flow rebounded in the third quarter of 2022 to reach $34.8 billion, shaking off prior quarters’ sluggishness in the face of geopolitical and macroeconomic uncertainty. Although we see capital discipline holding, stronger balance sheets and select opportunities to meet near-term supply concerns likely drive the jump this quarter. North America once again claims the bulk of quarterly transactions, with many deals outside the favored Permian Basin. Europe accounted for nearly $13 billion in deals, reflecting both immediate energy security drivers and longer-term energy transition adjustments to the upstream portfolio.
    Thu, Oct 13, 2022
  • After a long lull, select “advantaged” resource access rounds are set to advance. Policy shifts in the UK and US have opened a pathway for more predictable resource access, while red-hot Latin America and Caribbean progress with planned offshore rounds. Yet, other governments have largely failed to attract investors through new resource access opportunities, limiting the outlook for licensing rounds through the end of 2022.
    Wed, Sep 28, 2022
  • High oil prices have resulted in a strong change of fortune for Saudi Aramco, posting a record $48.4 billion profit for H1’22. Capex is now slated to increase until 2025, however its commitment to a $75 billion annual dividend may impact spending plans in the event of unforeseen, acute price volatility. Upstream oil and gas will absorb most capital spending, but Aramco’s new targets in renewables, CCS and ammonia, unveiled earlier in 2022, are likely to represent a growing portion of capex. The firm’s focus on petrochemicals and ammonia will be highly dependent on the gas side of its upstream expansion. In downstream, Aramco is growing its international footprint with new agreements moving ahead in Asia and Europe to support diversification and de-risk crude sales. The firm also has a significant number of energy transition milestones to reach by the year 2030 (coinciding with the national Vision 2030 initiative).
    Mon, Sep 19, 2022
  • Competitive Intelligence Research is pleased to offer the new Emissions Monitor to clients. The Excel-based report provides detailed reported emissions data and emissions reduction targets for key oil and gas operating companies, covering both IOCs and NOCs. Included in this twice-yearly Emissions Monitor: Scope 1+2 Total GHG Emissions data, Upstream Operational GHG Intensity data, Scope 3 End-Use GHG Emissions data, and key Company Emissions Targets displayed in tables and charts.
    Tue, Sep 13, 2022
  • High-impact drilling is on the rise, with the number of discoveries in the first half of 2022 outpacing all of 2021. This renewed exploration focus is expected to continue into 2023, with companies buoyed by higher oil and gas prices, targeting both new and traditional plays in upcoming drilling plans. Advantaged plays in Brazil, Guyana/Suriname Basin, USGOM and North Sea continue to draw the bulk of company activity, but a number of high-impact frontier plays are on our radar. In the US, the recent Inflation Reduction Act helps reduce policy uncertainty for future leasing and exploration activity.
    Mon, Aug 29, 2022
  • QatarEnergy’s choice of partners for its North Field Expansion is broadly in line with industry expectations, despite the absence of Asian firms expected to join the project’s first and largest phase. TotalEnergies, Exxon Mobil and Shell each received a greater equity stake in the larger expansion project than other partners, further underscoring the importance of Qatar’s existing relationships. For Qatar’s European joint venture partners, additional LNG equity capacity augments gas-centric transition strategies, while US firms get additional resource base diversification.
    Thu, Jul 7, 2022
  • Upstream M&A activity in the second quarter of 2022 reached $20.8 billion, showing continuing signs of sluggishness from the prior quarters. Emerging recession fears, alongside geopolitical uncertainty and continued corporate capital restraint, likely impacted the spotty deal flow. North American deals accounted for 70% of quarterly values, with several high-value deals across a variety of play types. Private equity is driving the bulk of transactions, and we expect durable deal flow here and in the North Sea as private capital seeks creative options beyond deferred IPOs. We see looming downside macroeconomic risk to prices that could stunt near-term M&A activity, but also plenty of supply-side support for higher-for-longer prices bolstering asset valuations.
    Wed, Jul 6, 2022
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