The energy crisis is complicating IOCs’ ability to keep “value over volume” central while also assuring delivery of energy transition strategies.

Energy Intelligence’s latest Macroeconomic Outlook focuses on the impact of the uncertain economic recovery on aboveground risk. Critically, inflation and rising borrowing costs weighed on advanced economies, but the tide may be turning as rate hikes slow, inflation cools and economic data remains robust. In Asia, China’s re-opening and supportive policies will boost growth, with positive spillovers. Yet the picture in Latin America and Africa is less rosy and debt concerns are mounting. Meanwhile, Russia’s surprisingly resilient economy faces growing headwinds as revenues fall, war costs rise, and new sanctions take effect. For producers, high hydrocarbon revenues improved the economic outlook, but disincentivized key reforms.