Balance: June Starts Stock Draws That Last Through Year-End

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A 1.1 million barrel per day implied inventory draw in June concluded the first half of 2023 which nonetheless registered an overall average inventory build of 300,000 b/d. June also ushered in a period of consistent stock draws, which should flip the second half of 2023 into a supply shortage of 1.3 million b/d and help buttress oil prices. In all, 2023 is set to drain tanks of 500,000 b/d for the whole year, or about 180 million barrels. This might be enough to secure a price floor, but not enough to sufficiently send the oil price flying. After all, balances for the first half of 2024 show another stockbuild of 500,000 b/d. Next year’s surplus will start weighing on oil prices in the futures market if 2023 is not delivering the expected inventory draws.

Oil Forecasts, Oil Prices, Crude Oil, Opec-Plus Supply , Oil Demand
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