The Big Picture

Israel's Shifting Fortunes

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  • When the Abraham Accords were signed three years ago, Israel was riding high, building an anti-Iran camp and binding itself to the region’s fabric, with the promise of ever closer ties.
  • But this trajectory has been thrown off course by the Iran-Saudi détente, the return of Syria to the Arab League and waning US influence in the region alongside China's growing importance.
  • Israel-Saudi normalization, the biggest prize, appears to be in jeopardy, with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict escalating under the far-right government, and Riyadh demanding a renewed peace process.

On his visit to Saudi Arabia this week, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken held "candid" talks with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman that covered a broad range of topics, from oil policy to containing Iran's influence and the potential normalization of ties with Israel. For many, this last goal looks increasingly improbable.

Security Risk , Nuclear Policy
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