Opec-Plus: What to Watch for in Vienna

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  • As Opec-plus ministers prepare to meet in Vienna on Jun. 4 to decide on their oil market management strategy, market signals present a challenge.
  • Oil prices are hovering in the $70s amid a clouded macroeconomic outlook, but there are expectations that the market will go from surplus to deficit in the second half.
  • Beyond deciding output options, the in-person meeting could focus on cut compliance; discussions on the thornier topic of baselines aren't thought to be on the agenda.

For Opec-plus, the upcoming meeting — the first since its virtual gathering in early December — comes against a variety of factors potentially affecting oil markets. Among those are persistent central bank policy uncertainties amid ongoing tightening in Europe versus a potential pause on high rates by the US Federal Reserve. US debt ceiling negotiations remain fraught with risk. Even though these are expected to be resolved eventually, a last-minute deal or a short extension could further rattle markets. There have also been questions over the sustainability of China’s post-Covid-19 recovery after some disappointing manufacturing numbers in April — despite solid growth in the first quarter.

Opec/Opec-Plus, Macroeconomics , Opec-Plus Supply , Non-Opec Supply, Oil Inventories
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