Fossil Fuel Phaseout in Focus for COP28

With just over six months until the start of UN climate talks in the United Arab Emirates, some of the key issues that will define COP28’s success or failure have started to come into focus. Last year’s talks in Egypt were seen as a win thanks to a historic breakthrough on loss and damage compensation, but the path to success is less clear for the UAE. Divisions at COP27 over phasing out fossil fuels, which were set aside in the interests of securing the loss and damage deal, are likely to come to fore again amid the first-ever global stocktake of progress against climate goals. But heightened concerns about energy security due to the Ukraine war and the UAE's status as an Opec member work in the oil and gas industry's favor. Mandated by the Paris Agreement, the global stocktake is a core element of its “review and ratchet” mechanism and intended to spur new rounds of climate plans. No one is expecting a positive report card, with a recent warning from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change having “already made it crystal clear that we are all way off track. This cannot be denied,” COP28 president-designate, Sultan al-Jaber, said this week at a meeting of climate and energy ministers from around 40 countries hosted by Germany. “This is a moment of clarity that we must face with total honesty,” he added, calling for a major course correction in response.