Balance: Crude Surplus Grows Fast in First-Half 2023

Copyright © 2023 Energy Intelligence Group All rights reserved. Unauthorized access or electronic forwarding, even for internal use, is prohibited.
Jim Barber/Shutterstock

More crude oil is coming to market than anticipated and that is leading to a growing supply surplus in the first half of 2023, latest balances show. The increase is substantial at 400,000 barrels per day, and three key sources contribute. Russian crude oil production is holding up better in February and March thanks to high domestic refinery runs. Nigerian supply is bouncing back as the government cracks down on theft. And US crude supply has been revised to account for upward adjustments in US data, which overstate consumption and undercount supply. A downward revision to US demand exacerbates the surplus. Whether Russia and Nigeria can maintain their higher volumes is unclear, but unlikely.

Oil Supply, Oil Demand, Crude Oil, Oil Products, Oil Prices
Wanda Ad #2 (article footer)
Now that the war premium has evaporated on ongoing Russian supplies, Brent's $75/bbl doesn't look outrageous based on fundamentals.
Tue, May 23, 2023
The Opec-plus decision to restrict oil production suits Moscow, as it should support markets without requiring additional sacrifices by Russia.
Wed, Jun 7, 2023