Overview: Disruption Impact Bigger From Oil Demand Than Supply

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Forecasting oil balances remains a tricky business a year after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Energy Intelligence balances show a reassuring equilibrium for 2023 that can absorb Russian supply limits or rising demand from China and a world that is flying more. For sure, there is plenty scope to upset the fragile balance. Fundamental forces now signal that rising demand is more of a disruptor than lower supply. In the unlikely event that Russia deliberately limits crude exports, Opec spare capacity can help out. Russian product exports are likely to fall, but can be compensated if China keeps its refineries running. But if oil consumption takes off much beyond the foreseen 1.6 million barrels per day growth, the world would again bump against limits of global refining capacity.

Oil Forecasts, Oil Supply, Oil Demand
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Net exports of crude and refined products from the US plunged in January, but still averaged almost 1 million barrels per day.
Fri, Mar 31, 2023