Iran: No Deal, No Crisis, Much Danger

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  • Talks over reviving a nuclear deal may have broken down, but neither Iran nor the US seek serious escalation.
  • Nevertheless, potential conflict points have proliferated with the emergence of Iran’s protest movement, Tehran’s drone support for Russia in Ukraine, and a new right-wing government in Israel.
  • Deft diplomacy on both sides will be needed to navigate the new regional risk terrain.

The war in Ukraine is driving a lot of this heightened risk, as underlined just last weekend by the drone attack on an Iranian armaments factory. Tehran’s decision to supply Russia with drones has in effect see it take sides in the conflict and given its traditional foes in the West one more reason to take a hard line. Less obviously, Iran’s Ukraine position plays into Israel’s hand. Unusually, both US and Israeli sources quickly came out and (anonymously) attributed this weekend’s drone strike as emanating from Israel. By striking Iran, Israel answers criticism that it has not done enough to help Ukraine.

Sanctions, Military Conflict, Ukraine Crisis, Security Risk , Nuclear Policy
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