Benchmarking: Chinese Consumption, Russian Exports Shape 2023 Narrative

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  • In the first month of 2023, global forecasts have pegged this year’s oil demand growth in a relatively wide range of 1 million-2.2 million b/d.
  • Russian liquids production, arguably the greatest unknown of 2023, is expected to decline by an average 1.24 million b/d, according to the four agencies surveyed for this analysis.
  • Currently no consensus on global balances this year exists as forecasts considerably diverge, particularly for the second half of the year.

The price and trading volatility from the outbreak of the pandemic three years ago has expanded into uncertainty over China’s oil consumption, Russian oil supply and a global natural gas crisis. These factors combine and complicate forecasts for global oil markets. However, among major forecasters there is consensus that the focus on oil markets will be Chinese demand and Russian supply. The configuration of these two gigantic market forces will largely determine oil prices from now until the end of the year.

Oil Demand, Crude Oil, Oil Supply, Oil Inventories
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