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Sluggish North Sea Trade Shows Need to Balance Slate

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  • February exports of Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk and Troll (BFOET) that comprise the dated Brent pricing basket are flat on the year at 707,000 b/d.
  • Johan Sverdrup is at 700,000-plus b/d for the second straight month and remains a core cover for absent Russian barrels.
  • The forward Brent structure shows that the regional refining market is saturated with sweet crude and needs to rebalance with heavier grades.

    North Sea exports are flat on the year, with 707,000 barrels per day on offer in February and so far little appetite for these barrels.

    Except for Forties, physical differentials remain unseasonably strong given the softer demand for light, sweet from regional refiners who are trying to “heavy up” their feedstock to make more diesel.

    The Brent forward structure is showing a shallow contango, usually a sign of an oversupplied market, while on Jan. 4 dated Brent dropped hard to around $76.30, on level with the July 2024 contract on the paper market.

    Weak Appetite

    The trading cycle for March-loading barrels of North Sea crude is off to a sluggish start. The usual buyers of Forties, sometimes considered as a potential, albeit lighter, alternative to Urals, have not yet shown up.

    Sizable volumes of Forties usually go to Germany, Lithuania, the Netherlands, or Poland. But so far only one spot cargo has shipped to BP in Rotterdam, according to Kpler data. The last Forties was done at an 80¢ discount to dated Brent.

    Other grades in the BFOET basket are still showing hefty premiums, ranging from about $2.95 per barrel to dated Brent for Ekofisk to $4.40/bbl for Troll. But traders think they will come off soon for lack of prompt appetite for light, sweet crude.

    “BP and Mercuria are already in the [Platts trading] window on the offer side as those cargoes become more prompt, I am sure they will offer cheaper," a trader told Energy Intelligence.

    North Sea Loadings for February and January 2023
    (million bbl) FebJan
    NorwayStandard CargoNo.Vol.No.Vol.
    Ekofisk600127.2137.8
    Oseberg60031.842.4
    Troll60074.274.2
    UK     
    Brent60021.221.2
    Forties60095.4116.6
    Total----19.8--22.2
    Total ('000 b/d)----707--716

    Balancing Slate

    Refiners in Europe have been pushing their runs to produce more middle distillates, especially diesel, which may be in short supply when the EU ban on Russian refined products enters force on Feb. 5.

    Refineries have been processing more light, sweet crude to skirt the higher gas prices, which are part of their processing costs, but they are also keen to take advantage of attractive very low-sulfur fuel oil prices in the shipping sector. However, this strategy has amplified the shortage of diesel and created a glut of lighter, lower-value products, notably naphtha and gasoline.

    Refiners hence need to rebalance their crude slate if they want to keep up with the market’s diesel requirements. Switching to a heavier slate could free up capacity by producing more diesel on the first run and thus lower overall utilization rates. This, of course, implies buying heavier crude, which is bearish for BFOET crude demand.

    Contango Signal

    The expected weakness in prompt demand is already visible in the Brent forward market.

    The weekly Brent CFD swaps, which tie the Brent forward and dated Brent prices, have flipped again into a shallow contango over the front six weeks. Dated Brent is now trading more than $1.70/bbl below the front-month paper contract and fell below $77/bbl, suggesting that the physical market has temporarily gone cold turkey.

    “I think we’ll see the contango roll down further both on spreads and then on the CFD curve,” a source said. This will add to the geopolitical risk premium linked to the war in Ukraine.

    The market has essentially normalized and is now refocusing on more immediate threats such as recession and the delayed return of Chinese demand.

    Technical traders note that the Brent flat price remains well below its 55-day and 200-day moving averages of $89.01/bbl and $100.67/bbl, respectively, which are usually considered key support levels. It means there is more scope for further price slide until Brent has found a stable floor.

    omb230103_Sankey.svg

    North Sea Loading Program for February 2023
    Loading(bbl)(b/d)ParcelEquity
    Brent
    10-12600,00021,429B0201EnQuest
    22-24600,00021,429B0202Glencore
    Forties
    02-04600,00021,429F0201Shell
    05-07600,00021,429F0202CNOOC
    08-10600,00021,429F0203Eni
    10-12600,00021,429F0204Shell
    13-15600,00021,429F0205Suncor
    16-18600,00021,429F0206BP
    19-21600,00021,429F0207Shell
    22-24600,00021,429F0208Total
    25-27600,00021,429F0209BP
    Oseberg
    06-08600,00021,42920230201    Equinor
    15-17600,00021,42920230202    ConocoPhillips/DNO/Equinor
    24-26600,00021,42920230203    Equinor
    Ekofisk
    01-03600,00021,429C13083Total
    04-06600,00021,429C13091Eni
    06-08600,00021,429C13088BP
    08-10600,00021,429C13095Shell
    11-13600,00021,429C13086ConocoPhillips
    13-15600,00021,429C13084Total
    15-17600,00021,429C13093Eni
    18-20600,00021,429C13089BP
    20-22600,00021,429C13085Total
    23-25600,00021,429C13096Shell
    25-27600,00021,429C13090BP
    27-01600,00021,429C13087ConocoPhillips
    Troll
    31-02600,00021,42920230107    Inpex/Idemitsu/PGING
    04-06600,00021,42920230201    Equinor
    09-11600,00021,42920230202    ConocoPhillips/Equinor/Sval
    14-16600,00021,42920230203    Equinor
    19-21600,00021,42920230204    Wintershall
    23-25600,00021,42920230205    Equinor
    27-01600,00021,42920230206    Inpex/PGING/Var
    Johan Sverdrup
    01-031,000,00035,71420230130   Aker BP
    03-05700,00025,00020230131   Equinor
    04-06700,00025,00020230132   Equinor
    04-06700,00025,00020230133   Equinor
    06-08700,00025,00020230134   Equinor
    06-08700,00025,00020230135   Equinor
    08-10700,00025,00020230136   Total
    08-10600,00021,42920230137   Aker BP
    10-121,000,00035,71420230138  Aker BP
    11-13700,00025,00020230139   Equinor
    12-14700,00025,00020230140  Equinor
    12-14700,00025,00020230141   Equinor
    14-16700,00025,00020230142   Equinor
    15-171,000,00035,71420230143   Aker BP
    16-18700,00025,00020230144   Aker BP
    17-19700,00025,00020230145   Equinor
    18-20700,00025,00020230146   Equinor
    19-21700,00025,00020230147   Equinor
    20-22600,00021,42920230148   Total
    21-23700,00025,00020230149   Equinor
    21-23600,00021,42920230150   Aker BP
    23-25700,00025,00020230151  Equinor
    23-25700,00025,00020230152   Equinor
    24-26700,00025,00020230153   Equinor
    25-27700,00025,00020230154   Equinor
    26-28600,00021,42920230155   Total
    27-011,000,00035,71420230156   Aker BP
    Total BFOET*18,600,000664,28633 cargoes--
    Total Johan Sverdrup19,700,000703,57127 cargoes--
    Total BFOET Plus Johan Sverdrup24,400,000871,42960 cargoes--

    Topics:
    Oil Supply, Oil Spot Markets, Crude Oil
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