Save for later Print Download Share LinkedIn Twitter Oil consumption is outstripping supply by 1.1 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, balances show. But attention is moving to 2023, which promises to be a year of two halves. The first half shows a big crude surplus and the second a sizable shortfall. As before, Russian supply policies, the Northern Hemisphere winter, Europe’s natural gas supply crisis and China’s Covid-19 policies are the major caveats to the forecast. Specifically, the Energy Intelligence outlook sees a 1 million b/d surplus in January-June and a 1.4 million b/d shortfall in July-December. Softness in the crude market seems to reflect ongoing solid supply of oil despite the start of the European Union ban on Russian crude imports.