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Fundamentals

Balance: Surplus Looms After November Balance, December Deficit

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Oil consumption is outstripping supply by 1.1 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, balances show. But attention is moving to 2023, which promises to be a year of two halves. The first half shows a big crude surplus and the second a sizable shortfall. As before, Russian supply policies, the Northern Hemisphere winter, Europe’s natural gas supply crisis and China’s Covid-19 policies are the major caveats to the forecast. Specifically, the Energy Intelligence outlook sees a 1 million b/d surplus in January-June and a 1.4 million b/d shortfall in July-December. Softness in the crude market seems to reflect ongoing solid supply of oil despite the start of the European Union ban on Russian crude imports.

Topics:
Oil Forecasts, Oil Demand, Oil Supply, Oil Products, Crude Oil
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