Save for later Print Download Share LinkedIn Twitter Crude oil output by Opec-plus members participating in a production cut deal fell by 300,000 b/d in November to 38.13 million b/d, according to Energy Intelligence’s assessment, a significantly smaller decline than the market had anticipated.A hefty increase by four countries — Angola, Kazakhstan, Russia and Nigeria — offset a potential 1 million b/d reduction that many observers had been expecting in line with the alliance’s agreement in October to slash output.Since these four countries have been producing far less than their quota, their additional barrels fall within the deal’s parameters.The smaller-than-expected Opec-plus cut has helped to keep global markets supplied and fed into the bearish sentiment sweeping oil futures, where leading benchmarks are in contango, a price structure generally that encourages oil storage since there is a glut of product.Two months ago, the 19 countries in Opec-plus that produce on a quota basis decided to reduce output by 2 million b/d. However, the thinking at the time was that only half of this would consist of physical barrels, while the other half would simply lower targets for countries like Russia and Nigeria that have reached capacity limits.Tellingly, Opec’s four stalwarts — Saudi Arabia, Iraq, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait — together reduced output by 920,000 b/d on the month, indicating the anticipated 1 million b/d cut was feasible.However, the group’s two laggards — Nigeria and Angola — together raised production by 350,000 b/d compared with October, while Kazakhstan and Russia, both non-Opec countries, managed a joint 320,000 b/d increase.All told, this 670,000 b/d gain greatly diminished the effect of the monthly cut by Mideast producers. It also alleviated any perception of tightness in global supplies at the start of winter.Shortfall CurtailedAs predicted, the downward adjustment to targets had a significant impact on Opec-plus’ monthly production shortfall.In the past six months, the alliance had come up short of its monthly target by an average 3.3 million b/d — the result of massive underproduction by countries that had run up against a capacity wall.In November, however, the size of the shortfall fell to 2 million b/d, which still points to discrepancies in volume allocation among the participating countries.Said differently, if Opec-plus were in theory to meet its official target, oil production would soar by 2 million b/d.The largest shortfall belongs to Nigeria, whose November output was 730,000 b/d short of target, while in second place was Russia, which produced 670,000 b/d less than its quota. Third was Angola (250,000 b/d short), and fourth was Malaysia (190,000 b/d short).December OutlookProduction could conceivably grow in December, when the November quotas will remain in place.Assuming the big Mideast producers hold output steady, more barrels could emerge from Kazakhstan, which will want to compensate for three months of underproduction, and West Africa, where producers like Nigeria and Angola are generally unreliable but have been known to surprise to the upside.Including the four members without a quota — Iran, Mexico, Libya and Venezuela — Opec-plus’ crude production last month fell by 220,000 b/d to 44.28 million b/d. World Crude Oil and Other Liquids Supply ('000 b/d)Oct'22Nov'22Chg.Crude NovOther Nov Non-Opec-Plus46,42246,074-34832,88713,187 US19,65819,496-16112,1007,396 Canada5,4055,485804,4301,055 Brazil3,8653,496-3682,965531 Colombia773781876318 Norway1,9512,020691,745275 UK892898581187 Egypt6676681553115 Qatar2,1352,149146131,536 China4,2274,23264,128105 India7597623578185 Indonesia7867915606185 Other Non-Opec-Plus5,3055,295-103,5961,699 Opec-Plus52,32352,279-4544,2768,003 Opec34,56534,270-29528,8305,440 Saudi Arabia13,20412,882-32210,4712,411 Iraq4,5604,432-1284,37260 Iran3,4113,469582,595874 UAE4,2384,097-1413,0471,050 Kuwait2,9812,846-1352,676170 Nigeria1,1331,193601,015178 Libya1,2801,270-101,21060 Algeria1,5101,490-201,029461 Angola9821,2472651,20542 Other Opec1,2661,344771,210134 Non-Opec17,75818,00825015,4462,562 Russia11,25511,289349,8121,477 Kazakhstan1,6741,9322581,678254 Azerbaijan6967069551155 Mexico†1,9381,958201,701257 Oman1,1131,068-45846222 Malaysia583556-27376180 Other Non-Opec499499048217 World Supply98,74598,353-39277,16321,190 Refinery Gains2,3442,47713300 Total World101,089100,830-26077,16323,666 *Other liquids include natural gas liquids, biofuels, gas-to-liquids, coal-to-liquids, refinery additives. †Mexico nominally is a member of the Opec-plus alliance but has no production quota. Source: IEA, EIA, Jodi, Government and Trade data, Energy Intelligence.