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Fundamentals

Overview: Market Realigns Expectations as Distortions Continue

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The oil market is diving head-on into unknown territory as epic changes take effect. The ingredients stir up price volatility. The first hurdle, the EU Dec. 5 ban on Russian crude oil imports, seems less of an obstacle than thought, for now. The second, the EU refined product ban, goes into force on Feb. 5 and is far more challenging. Crude has been less of a worry ever since Russia restored export volumes above prewar levels thanks to steep discounts. Finding new markets for Russia’s products is harder, however, and getting these to market is virtually impossible without using the G7 price cap that Russia rejects. The market’s verdict is to sell crude oil futures, with Brent dropping well below Opec-plus’ favored floor of $90.

Topics:
Oil Forecasts, Oil Demand, Oil Supply, Oil Prices, Sanctions, Oil Futures and Derivatives
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