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Fundamentals

Balances: Market Moves Into Phase of Sustained Surpluses

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With the market having largely shifted to 2023 trading, liquid hydrocarbon supply is expected to show at least five months of sustained surpluses, which should allow the crude market to rebuild some inventories. Energy Intelligence's supply and demand balances signal an expected surplus of 600,000 barrels per day in the first quarter and 1 million b/d in the second. Whether that translates into calmer crude oil prices and even some periods of contango — where spot purchases are cheaper than later supplies — depends mostly on the availability of refined products, especially diesel. Over the next couple months, Russian supply, Chinese demand and global weather are the biggest wild cards.

Topics:
Oil Demand, Oil Supply, Oil Forecasts, Crude Oil, Oil Products
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