Supply Outlook 2024: Short-Cycle, Deepwater Push New Oil

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  • Short-cycle, deepwater projects will add 1.6 million b/d to non-Opec-plus supply in 2024.

  • US shale and additions on already proven plays like Brazil and Guyana are favored.

  • Output growth remains skewed in the OECD, while the non-OECD lags due to under-investment.

  • In the medium term, oil capacity additions are highest in 2024, but not all is needed.

Short-cycle investments in US shale will continue to drive oil supply growth in 2024, supplemented by prolific and proven deepwater plays in Guyana and Brazil, Energy Intelligence's outlook shows. Producers outside Opec-plus are forecast to add 1.6 million b/d to global liquids supply in 2024, more than covering projected demand growth. The US will contribute 925,000 b/d, while Brazil will add 325,000 b/d and Guyana 160,000 b/d. Norway, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and first oil from Senegal will boost global growth.

Oil Supply, Crude Oil, NGL/LPG, Deepwater, Shale, Oil Forecasts
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