Demand Outlook 2024: World Resets on a Lower Growth Trend

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  • Oil demand in 2024 has passed the worst of the recession but a tight 2023-24 winter supply outlook in Europe keeps the brakes on growth.
  • Inflation will peak in 2023 and subside in 2024 on tighter central bank policies and lower commodity prices, but Europe will run short gas again.
  • Jet fuel demand is the only product showing resilience given an incomplete rebound in 2023 after the economic slump.
  • Tight supply keeps product prices high at a time that demand cools off in response to a structural change in consumer habits.

The year 2024 will mark the beginning of a new, flatter growth regime for oil demand. If 2023 sees the worst of the recession, 2024 starts with supply bottlenecks and high fuel prices that put a brake on demand growth. The Energy Intelligence forecast sees global oil consumption growing by 932,000 barrels per day to 101.96 million b/d in 2024, led by an early economic pull from the US and a late but gradual recovery from China.

Oil Demand, Oil Forecasts, Oil Products, Oil Prices
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