Benchmarking: Consensus Demand Outlook for 2022-23 Converges

Copyright © 2022 Energy Intelligence Group All rights reserved. Unauthorized access or electronic forwarding, even for internal use, is prohibited.
  • Consensus has converged and now sees oil demand growing by 2.1 million b/d this year, while the range of forecasts for total annual consumption has narrowed.

  • For 2023, the range of demand growth is 1.9 million b/d to 2.7 million b/d, or an average of 2.3 million b/d.

  • Consensus is split on balances for next year, with one agency forecasting a net draw of inventories, another a net build and a third a balanced global market.

Oil forecasts for 2022-23 are at a crossroads. On the one hand, there is the salient risk of recession and the possibility of Iran pumping more oil — two themes that are flattening the price curve on the futures market. On the other are risks of Russian output falling and massive fuel switching this winter due to sky-high natural gas prices. Not surprisingly, volatility persists.

Oil Demand, Oil Supply, Crude Oil, Supply & Demand , Oil Forecasts
Wanda Ad #2 (article footer)
Iraq's August crude production was the highest since March 2020 but still lower than the target set by Opec-plus.
Tue, Sep 13, 2022
Trading of Russian oil — never transparent at the best of times — is being driven further underground by western sanctions.
Fri, Sep 23, 2022
Refinery capacity is strained and inventories are low, meaning a single storm could have big ripple effects.
Fri, Sep 23, 2022