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Benchmarking: Consensus Demand Outlook for 2022-23 Converges

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  • Consensus has converged and now sees oil demand growing by 2.1 million b/d this year, while the range of forecasts for total annual consumption has narrowed.

  • For 2023, the range of demand growth is 1.9 million b/d to 2.7 million b/d, or an average of 2.3 million b/d.

  • Consensus is split on balances for next year, with one agency forecasting a net draw of inventories, another a net build and a third a balanced global market.

Oil forecasts for 2022-23 are at a crossroads. On the one hand, there is the salient risk of recession and the possibility of Iran pumping more oil — two themes that are flattening the price curve on the futures market. On the other are risks of Russian output falling and massive fuel switching this winter due to sky-high natural gas prices. Not surprisingly, volatility persists.

Topics:
Oil Demand, Oil Supply, Crude Oil, Supply & Demand , Oil Forecasts
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