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Benchmarking: Demand, Supply Outlooks for 2023 Murky

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  • Macroeconomic uncertainty has fed into divergent forecasts for oil consumption growth in 2023, which now range from a low of 1.2 million b/d to 2.7 million b/d.

  • The supply picture for 2023 is confused given the territory ahead: an embargo on Russian crude and oil products complicates forecasts for oil prices and demand.

  • Global balances among agencies surveyed in this study show a modest crude inventory build this year, though consensus is split on balances in 2023.

Recessionary fears have crystallized over the past month and filtered into forecasts through both sizable and marginal reductions in the demand outlook. Already this year consensus has reduced the demand for 2022 by an average 1.3 million barrels per day. And as advanced economies battle inflation and high energy prices, volatility has increased on oil markets, further confounding forecasts.

Topics:
Oil Forecasts, Crude Oil, Oil Demand, Oil Supply, Oil Inventories
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