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Fundamentals

Supply/Demand: Softening Demand Pushes Balances Into Surplus

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In April, the forecast for the third quarter saw an inventory draw of 500,000 barrels per day as demand would outstrip supply. Fast-forward three months later, and the forecast now shows a surplus of 900,000 b/d — the biggest since the pandemic started. Back in April, the thinking was that demand could reach 100.8 million b/d in the third quarter. High prices and the forecast for lower economic growth have reduced this forecast to 99.9 million b/d. At the same time, the market also sees 500,000 b/d more supply. That is all Russian crude, now expected to come to market as the discounts keep Urals flowing to India and China.

Topics:
Oil Supply, Oil Demand, Oil Forecasts, Crude Oil, Oil Products, Oil Prices
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