Save for later Print Download Share LinkedIn Twitter In April, the forecast for the third quarter saw an inventory draw of 500,000 barrels per day as demand would outstrip supply. Fast-forward three months later, and the forecast now shows a surplus of 900,000 b/d — the biggest since the pandemic started. Back in April, the thinking was that demand could reach 100.8 million b/d in the third quarter. High prices and the forecast for lower economic growth have reduced this forecast to 99.9 million b/d. At the same time, the market also sees 500,000 b/d more supply. That is all Russian crude, now expected to come to market as the discounts keep Urals flowing to India and China.