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Benchmarking: Specter of Recession Confounds Demand Outlook

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  • The consensus forecast for demand growth in 2022 is increasingly bearish as analysts vie with the risks posed by high fuel prices, record inflation, tighter monetary policy and the threat of a recession.
  • The Russia factor has muddled the supply picture for 2022-23, although agencies surveyed have readjusted the outlook upward based on Russia’s ability to find new markets for its barrels.
  • The overall global balance this year has swung into surplus, according to consensus, as new supply outstrips weaker-than-expected demand.

Oil demand is set to grow by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2022, according to the average among consensus, which is down from 3.6 million b/d forecast at the start of the year. High prices for fuels and food are eroding growth prospects, and further downward revisions are possible given the high degree of uncertainty.

Topics:
Oil Forecasts, Oil Supply, Oil Demand, Crude Oil, Opec-Plus Supply
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