Benchmarking: Specter of Recession Confounds Demand Outlook

Copyright © 2022 Energy Intelligence Group All rights reserved. Unauthorized access or electronic forwarding, even for internal use, is prohibited.
  • The consensus forecast for demand growth in 2022 is increasingly bearish as analysts vie with the risks posed by high fuel prices, record inflation, tighter monetary policy and the threat of a recession.
  • The Russia factor has muddled the supply picture for 2022-23, although agencies surveyed have readjusted the outlook upward based on Russia’s ability to find new markets for its barrels.
  • The overall global balance this year has swung into surplus, according to consensus, as new supply outstrips weaker-than-expected demand.

Oil demand is set to grow by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2022, according to the average among consensus, which is down from 3.6 million b/d forecast at the start of the year. High prices for fuels and food are eroding growth prospects, and further downward revisions are possible given the high degree of uncertainty.

Oil Forecasts, Oil Supply, Oil Demand, Crude Oil, Opec-Plus Supply
Wanda Ad #2 (article footer)
Opec-plus corrected recent setbacks in July and cranked out the barrels but producers still remain 2.85 million b/d below target.
Tue, Aug 9, 2022
Crude production in the US shale sector is expected to rise by about 141,000 b/d in September, according to the EIA.
Mon, Aug 15, 2022
Opec has lowered its forecast of global oil demand in the third and fourth quarters of this year by 630,000 b/d compared with its July forecast.
Thu, Aug 11, 2022