348 Save for later Print Download Share LinkedIn Twitter After having held firm in March, Russian output is beginning to slide fast and hard. Average production of crude oil and gas condensate in Apr. 1-19 was 10.1 million barrels per day, down nearly 9% from March levels, official data show. Crude output alone is down 900,000 b/d so far this month to 9.15 million b/d, according to Energy Intelligence’s estimate. Tellingly, on Apr. 19, crude and condensate production was 9.86 million b/d, which is a staggering 1.15 million b/d less than average output the previous month. At the current rate of decline of about 47,000 b/d, the country would even reach the pandemic nadir of 9.3 million b/d in June 2020. The fall in many ways mimics the one Russia witnessed two years ago when Covid-19 was galloping across the globe: Handicapped by a lack of storage, producers have no choice but to shut in wells. This time, however, Russian barrels are widely considered to be toxic by many buyers. Producers were able to prop up production in March thanks only to wild discounts to dated Brent — up to $40 per barrel for Urals. So long as the war continues, such generous discounts will be the only way Russia can keep exports near a lofty 5 million b/d.
