UAE Waits to Use Growing Output Capacity

The United Arab Emirates' ambition to boost its oil production capacity to 5 million barrels per day by 2030 is well known. But where does its capacity stand now, and how much of it could be made available if needed at a time of high crude prices and market tightness? What's clear is that Abu Dhabi, holder of almost all the Opec member's hydrocarbon reserves, has made significant progress on its upstream expansion plans in recent years. Energy Intelligence estimates its oil production capacity now stands at around 4.3 million b/d. However, only 3.7 million-3.8 million b/d may be sustainable for a longer period based on conversations with industry sources. Pumping beyond that level for an extended period would likely require time to allow for more drilling. “The rig count is still below 2019 levels, so drilling hasn't recovered,” notes Robin Mills, CEO of consultancy Qamar Energy. More than half of the 4.3 million b/d capacity is attributable to offshore fields, helped partly by Exxon Mobil completing works to boost capacity at the giant Upper Zakum offshore field to 1 million b/d late last year — some three years ahead of schedule. The UAE's total capacity includes an estimated 30,000-40,000 b/d pumped in Dubai. All told, the Gulf state's 4.3 million b/d of capacity ranks third within Opec, behind Saudi Arabia (12 million b/d) and Iraq (5 million b/d). The UAE is now capable of producing more oil — at least theoretically — than Iran, where estimated capacity of around 4 million b/d has been hampered by sanctions in recent years.