Upstream Tracker: Medium-Term Capacity Growth Improves

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  • New global oil production capacity slated to come on line in 2022-26 is estimated at 2.4 million barrels per day per year.
  • Just over two-thirds of this new capacity, or 1.7 million b/d per year, will come from countries not aligned with the Opec-plus group.
  • Regionally, North America will roll out the most capacity on an average basis over the five years, just slightly ahead of Latin America.
  • Among operators, Petrobras is expected to emerge as the new capacity champion during the period, followed by Saudi Aramco.

The stunning 65% rise in oil prices over the past four months has proven to be a remarkable fertilizer for the medium-term outlook on new production capacity. Projects previously deemed questionable now make economic sense with Brent well over $100 despite the inevitable low-carbon energy transition.

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