Demand: OECD Shows Strength, Ukraine Perils Loom Globally

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Global demand has outperformed expectations, not only in February but so far in the first quarter of 2022, even if Russia’s Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine is now clouding the future. The demand forecast for the first quarter of 2022 has been raised by 800,000 barrels per day from last month, essentially reflecting the strong contribution from the US and Europe. For the year, global demand is assessed 100,000 b/d lower to 100.6 million b/d, including a 200,000 b/d downward adjustment for the second quarter of 2022. The annual growth projection of 3.2 million b/d in 2022 can face steep downward revisions from global economic fallouts from the war and new Covid-19 waves, especially in China.

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