Outlook Sees No Crunch Through 2026

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Liquids production outside the Opec-plus alliance will keep the market well-supplied, leaving little room for Opec-plus to boost output significantly beyond 2022, Energy Intelligence’s medium-term outlook shows. The outlook sees non-Opec-plus producers adding 5.4 million barrels per day through 2026, with 3.4 million b/d coming from crude oil. Often overlooked natural gas liquids (NGLs) are forecast to add 1.6 million b/d. The additions cover most of the 6.3 million b/d in expected global demand growth through 2026. In 2022, non-Opec-plus supply falls short by 900,000 b/d, but that can be easily covered by spare Opec-plus capacity; beyond 2022, Opec-plus has little opportunity to add to output until 2026. Key crude oil additions will come from Brazil, the US, Guyana and Norway, while Suriname will jump in the action starting in 2026. Non-Opec-plus crude production is calculated to rise to 34.7 million b/d by 2026 from 31.3 million b/d in 2021. Importantly, these new barrels more than compensate for natural declines. Brazil’s delayed growth is poised to accelerate. Our outlook sees Brazil adding 1.9 million b/d by 2026 to 4.8 million b/d. By the same year, Guyana will ramp up 680,000 b/d to 790,000 b/d, and Norway is forecast to pump 625,000 b/d more for a total 2.4 million b/d. Compared to the previous outlook, the US is again surprising to the upside. Just this summer US shale was expected to deliver its last hurrah in 2022 and flatline before declining from 2024; however, the latest outlook foresees US output growing steadily through 2024 before staying flat and declining slightly in 2026. The US is expected to add 900,000 b/d to 12 million b/d by 2026, after peaking at 12.3 million b/d in 2024.

Crude Oil, Oil Supply, Opec-Plus Supply , Oil Demand
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