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Benchmarking: Oil Balance Set to Reverse Course in 2022

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  • Among four agencies surveyed in November, consensus shows that in 2022 demand for crude oil and other liquids will grow by 3.5 million barrels per day and in the third quarter surpass the average level of consumption in 2019.
  • The range of estimates for growth in global liquids supplies next year is wide, with the average at approximately 4.9 million b/d.
  • With supply exceeding demand, inventories will build in the first half of 2022 but remain roughly flat, Energy Intelligence estimates.

Demand for crude oil has exceeded supply for six quarters straight — the result of the Covid-19 pandemic — and allowed global inventories to decline to pre-pandemic levels globally, and in the OECD some 200 million barrels below. However, this will change in the first half of 2022 when supply will exceed demand and inventories inflate once again.

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