Asia Braces for Even Higher LNG Prices

Copyright © 2021 Energy Intelligence Group

Traders are bracing for what is shaping up to be one of the most volatile winters in the history of LNG trading in Asia-Pacific. A five-week bull run has brought Energy Intelligence assessed spot prices for Northeast Asia deliveries four to eight weeks ahead at $25 per million Btu. This is more than five times higher than in September last year. Prices only reached this level once since records began in 2010. That was in January when colder than expected weather prompted panic-buying among Asian countries. To avoid a similar situation this winter, Asian buyers started building inventories early this year. Combined with strong demand from China, which recovered faster than any other country from Covid-19, this has kept prices above usual levels. “LNG is traded well above fundamental values of $10-$11 per million Btu implied from current inventory levels and oil price,” Bernstein analysts said in a note.

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