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Strong EV Uptake Underpins EU Ambition

Copyright © 2021 Energy Intelligence Group
WEO ONLY -- EVs May Set Speed Record

Electric vehicle (EV) uptake continues to accelerate in Europe, and the European Commission is hoping to build on this trend as part of its decarbonization strategy announced in July. Latest data from the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) shows an EV market share of more than 15%: all-electric battery EVs more than doubled from 3.5% in the second quarter of 2020 to 7.5% in the second quarter this year, while plug-in hybrids made up 8.4% of all new cars sold. Demand for hybrid cars also strongly increased, accounting for 19.3% of EU car registrations. As part of its strategy to cut emissions by 55% by 2030 on the way to net zero by 2050, Brussels is now looking to hasten the transition to zero-emission mobility. It proposes that the average emissions of new cars should come down by 55% from 2030 and 100% from 2035 compared with 2021 levels. As a result, all new cars registered as of 2035 would be zero emission (NE Jul.15'21). The 100% EV target shows the commission “is serious about going carbon neutral by 2050 and will put European industry in the driving seat to dominate the new global EV market,” argues campaign group Transport & Environment. Yet it warns that limited efforts will be required by carmakers before 2030, which risks “slamming the brakes on the recent EV momentum.” To reach zero emissions for all new cars by 2035 cost-effectively, T&E calculates that sales of zero-emission vehicles would need to hit market shares of 22% in 2025 -- only seven percentage points above present levels -- but then climb to 67% in 2030. Such a trajectory would also help drive down the cost of making an EV, thus making EVs cheaper to buy than petrol cars just six years from now, T&E suggests. Green Incentives Automakers are also seeking more government support. In a recent EV progress report, ACEA said the positive trend in EV sales can only be sustained if governments start making matching investments in infrastructure alongside meaningful and sustainable incentives. Indeed, the surge in EV uptake during the pandemic has been helped by some governments creating new purchase incentives within economic stimulus packages. This resulted in many consumers moving away from traditional internal combustion engines (ICE) vehicles, instead purchasing low-emissions alternatives, according to auto consultancy Jato Dynamics (NE May6'21). Affordability

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