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Non-Opec: Oil Output Growth Decelerates in Late Summer

Copyright © 2021 Energy Intelligence Group
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Crude oil production by countries not aligned with the Opec-plus alliance amounted to 31.57 million b/d in July, or 43% of global crude oil output. On a monthly basis, the increase was 214,000 b/d, a slower pace than the 420,000 b/d seen in June. July growth also represented slightly more than half of the new barrels that the Opec-plus alliance managed to supply the market for that month (related). Over the coming months, output growth from Opec-plus is going to far outpace that from the non-Opec-plus producers (related). Opec-plus has committed to a 400,000 b/d addition per month through 2022. This will narrow inventory draws (related). July oil output in the US, the world’s largest fuel producer, was estimated to have flatlined at 11.25 million b/d, where it is expected to linger in August before starting to climb in September. The rig count reached 397 as of Aug. 13, or 10 more than the previous week, according to Baker Hughes. This is more than double the amount a year ago when the industry was paralyzed by the pandemic. Activity in the oil patch is gathering pace. In the meantime, the number to watch is natural gas liquids (NGL) output, which in August is forecast to reach an all-time high of 5.5 million b/d as gas producers crank it to the max ahead of winter and capitalize on high prices. July output of NGLs in the US was seen at 5.4 million b/d. Otherwise, non-Opec crude oil growth remains a narrative with three main protagonists: Norway, Brazil and Canada. Guyana is to join them later. Together these three countries posted a monthly production increase of 333,000 b/d, compensating for declines elsewhere. Brazil is the growth leader, and July production there climbed 147,000 b/d month on month and reached 3.05 million b/d. This approaches the level of August 2020, after which output began declining from Covid-19 related work impairments. Canada, the world’s fourth-largest crude producer, posted monthly growth of 90,000 b/d in July and reached 4.25 million b/d. Oil sands developers are ramping up now that prices have returned to respectable levels (OMI Jul.19'21); they plan to lower their carbon footprint with the energy transition looming (PIW Jun.25'21). The price of Western Canadian Select reached $58.46 per barrel in June, up more than 70% from the same month in 2020. In Norway, monthly output grew 96,000 b/d in July and amounted to 1.77 million b/d, preliminary data shows. Oil production there is growing steadily since May and is forecast to post a fresh record of around 1.83 million b/d by year’s end. From here until the end of the 2021 the amount of new oil from the nonaligned non-Opec bloc of producers is limited (OMI Jun.16'21). In August, nonaligned non-Opec is forecast to grow output by 103,000 b/d and then another 222,000 b/d to reach nearly 31.9 million b/d. Fourth-quarter output, however, will expand at a slower rate than in the third, although nonaligned barrels will average 31.95 million, up nearly 1 million b/d from the fourth quarter of 2020. In 2022, production is forecast to average 32.58 million b/d, a 1.2 million b/d gain on 2021. By contrast, output by the Opec-plus alliance is expected to grow an average 2.5 million b/d next year to reach 44 million b/d. NON-OPEC CRUDE OIL AND OTHER OIL PRODUCTION 2021 Chg. vs. 2020 2021 ('000 b/d) May Jun Jul Jun'21 Jul'20 2020 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 Americas 21,868 21,936 22,186 +250 +784 21,913 20,792 21,203 21,608 21,513 US 11,230 11,250 11,250 0 +277 11,318 10,823 10,809 10,898 10,673 Canada 4,046 4,160 4,250 +90 +478 4,026 3,632 3,772 4,284 4,352 Mexico 1,683 1,681 1,677 -4 +72 1,662 1,651 1,628 1,636 1,671 Brazil 2,932 2,903 3,050 +147 -28 2,940 2,912 3,024 2,785 2,845 Argentina 483 426 438 +11 -13 462 441 451 457 463 Colombia 745 745 750 +5 +15 781 753 742 757 744 Other Americas Crude 749 770 771 +1 -17 725 580 777 790 763 Total Europe 2,840 3,039 3,169 +130 +16 3,115 3,131 2,999 3,115 3,157 North Sea 2,442 2,638 2,766 +128 +18 2,719 2,741 2,596 2,722 2,767 Norway 1,654 1,674 1,770 +96 +35 1,687 1,683 1,648 1,718 1,776 UK 709 891 921 +30 -14 946 974 868 924 916 Denmark 68 66 67 +2 -1 72 70 69 69 62 Other North Sea 11 7 8 +1 -2 13 13 12 11 13 Other Europe 398 401 403 +2 -2 396 390 403 394 390 Africa/Mideast 3,120 3,162 3,167 +5 +134 3,087 3,111 3,052 3,023 3,033 Oman 829 768 817 +49 +146 758 723 703 721 779 Qatar 583 604 601 -3 -9 594 591 605 599 574 Egypt 595 602 609 +7 0 592 599 595 566 559 South Sudan 148 201 138 -63 -20 152 152 157 156 151 Syria 140 140 140 0 0 130 137 140 140 140 Yemen 78 79 76 -4 +8 60 60 69 70 77 Ghana 183 125 203 +78 -11 209 218 226 195 177 Sudan 82 83 81 -2 +2 81 84 79 73 89 Chad 153 127 125 -2 +2 132 136 134 124 137 Other Afr./Mideast 328 433 377 -56 +16 377 411 343 378 348 Asia 18,191 18,280 18,151 -130 +979 18,125 17,911 17,491 17,691 17,900 Russia 9,531 9,525 9,603 +78 +997 9,413 9,225 8,919 9,118 9,259 Kazakhstan 1,521 1,516 1,533 +16 +174 1,506 1,503 1,383 1,453 1,503 Azerbaijan 588 609 610 +1 +35 608 607 583 587 593 Turkmenistan 81 70 85 +15 -3 84 77 86 92 80 Other FSU Crude 76 75 75 0 -2 78 78 78 77 76 China 3,988 4,105 3,921 -184 -96 3,933 3,908 4,002 3,914 3,952 Indonesia 676 670 659 -11 0 672 674 665 670 680 India 578 578 585 +6 -40 616 620 608 608 608 Malaysia 445 425 404 -21 -42 464 458 436 443 447 Australia 135 144 136 -7 0 138 143 135 137 118 Vietnam 168 164 165 +0 -8 179 175 177 181 177 Thailand 106 106 104 -2 -11 117 118 116 106 104 Brunei 91 85 65 -20 -3 88 96 77 85 91 Other Asian Crude 209 208 206 -1 -22 229 231 226 221 213 Non-Opec NGLs 12,165 12,189 12,194 +6 +232 11,805 11,459 11,910 11,972 11,708 Non-Opec Other 3,762 3,669 3,823 +154 +139 3,343 3,147 3,783 3,438 3,495 Total Non-Opec 61,950 62,278 62,689 +411 +2,284 61,388 59,551 60,439 60,848 60,806 Total World 92,540 93,522 94,222 +700 5,147 95,646 94,192 93,918 91,578 89,887 Refinery gains 2,219 2,225 2,200 -25 202 1,980 1,955 1,954 1,898 1,916 Total 94,759 95,747 96,422 675 5,349 97,626 96,147 95,872 93,476 91,803 Source: Energy Intelligence

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