China’s Gas Demand to Grow Faster This Year

China’s state-run natural gas majors predict China’s gas demand will grow faster this year due to the easing of the global pandemic. However, they also predict that China’s gas demand will peak sooner -- and lower -- on the way to a national carbon neutrality target. China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC), China’s largest gas supplier, forecast this week that China’s gas consumption will add at least 30 Bcm/yr (2.9 Bcf/d) this year, with an annual growth rate of 8.6%-10%, higher than last year’s 5.6%. Rival Sinopec put gas demand growth this year at around 26.2 Bcm to 36.2 Bcm, similar to CNPC’s forecast. China’s gas consumption in 2020 added 17.1 Bcm (1.7 Bcf/d) to 323.8 Bcm. CNPC also predicted China’s gas demand will peak at 585 Bcm/yr by 2030 in keeping with a pledged 2030 carbon peak and a 2060 carbon neutrality target. However, before the launch of national carbon target plans late last year, CNPC’s forecast was for China’s gas demand to peak at 700 Bcm/yr by 2050. The timeline does leave room for China to overtake Japan as the world's No. 1 LNG importer (LNGI Dec.24'20). CNOOC's forecast -- see table -- has China reaching 100 million tons of LNG imports by 2025 while Japan isn't expecting to reach that level until 2030 (LNGI Nov.5'20). China's Gas Demand Forecast in 2021 China's Gas