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CHINA -- China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC) forecasts that the country's net imports of crude oil and its net exports of refined products will continue to grow this year, as refining capacity stays well ahead of domestic demand. CNPC's forecast for 2021 shows China's net crude imports growing 3.4% this year to 559 million tons (11.23 million b/d) with net exports growing nearly 32% to 54.7 million tons. Refiners will have no choice but to export refined products because domestic demand is projected to increase by only 1.1%. In a previous long-term forecast, CNPC said China's oil demand will peak around 740 million tons (14.86 million b/d) by 2030 (IOD Dec.18'20), in line with Beijing's plans to halt the rise in China's carbon emissions by then (IOD Sep.23'20). That same forecast also projected that the domestic market for refined products will remain oversupplied until at least 2050 as refining capacity continues to grow. China's refining capacity reached 870 million tons/yr (17.5 million b/d) last year, and CNPC forecasts it will increase to 980 million tons (19.7 million b/d) by 2025, leaving the country with 160 million tons of surplus refining capacity in that year.

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