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Press Release

Energy Intelligence Ranks Winners, Losers In Low-Carbon Transition

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Energy Intelligence announces the launch of a new benchmark that assesses which oil and gas companies are best placed to survive the energy transition – and which are most exposed – as part of its new Energy Transition Service. The Vulnerability Index finds that all 25 companies covered are at risk but to widely varying degrees depending on the resilience of their current portfolios and their plans to adapt or transform their businesses.

European majors Total and Royal Dutch Shell are best positioned. Total narrowly beats Shell to first place, followed by Eni and Equinor. BP sits further back in 10th place with a less-developed energy transition strategy and weaker financial position, but the dramatic strategic shift announced by new CEO Bernard Looney shows the supermajor’s intentions of catching up.

US independents – Apache, Hess, Noble, Occidental and ConocoPhillips – are clustered at the other end of the index and are most vulnerable. These companies face an existential threat due to non-resilient portfolios and weak transition adaptation strategies. “Independent E&Ps need to improve their financial resilience and take decisive steps to lower their carbon intensity and diversify operations,” says TJ Conway, Energy Intelligence’s Director of Energy Transition Research. “Business as usual is not an option for them longer term.”

Top national oil companies (NOCs) – Qatar Petroleum, Petronas and Saudi Aramco – are leaders in portfolio resilience, but are more vulnerable than is generally assumed, ranking fifth, sixth and 11th, respectively. Other NOCs – Sinopec, Rosneft and Ecopetrol – are poorly prepared and rank much lower. “NOCs’ biggest risk is inaction – even the most resilient firms need to develop strong strategies to adapt and transform their businesses,” says Conway.

US supermajors Exxon Mobil and Chevron sit in the middle of the pack and must still prove the viability of their “Big Oil” approach. Although their success hinges on the competitiveness of their portfolios – on cost and carbon efficiency – they are currently only mid-tier on financial and operational resilience, on par with their European peers.

Energy Intelligence’s pioneering Vulnerability Index quantifies the threat posed by the energy transition to the world’s biggest oil and gas companies through a rigorous proprietary methodology. The index evaluates firms on 16 factors under two key dimensions:

1. Portfolio Resilience: a company’s underlying financial and operational health, including its current competitiveness on a commercial and carbon-intensity basis.

2. Adaptation & Transformation: the extent to which a company has outlined and is delivering on plans to survive the transition.

The Vulnerability Index is one of three benchmarks that underpin the Energy Transition Service’s unique approach to corporate risk analysis. The ESG Climate Risk Benchmark ranks firms on their responses to climate-related investor pressures based on standardized environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria. The Low-Carbon Investment Tracker monitors and analyzes investment activity in low-carbon solutions, including renewables and negative emissions technologies. The indexes currently cover 25 oil and gas companies —10 top NOCs, the five supermajors, seven leading independent E&Ps and three regional integrated companies.

The benchmarks were created to help the industry navigate the challenges of the energy transition and learn lessons from others, while providing comparative data for investors.

The Energy Transition Service is a new offering from Energy Intelligence that delivers insights, analysis and guidance on how the low-carbon energy transition is unfolding, and which companies and countries are best placed to survive and adapt. The service addresses the crucial “so what” question for oil and gas companies struggling to develop effective and profitable strategies through the energy transition.

-ENDS-

Notes to Editors

Download the executive summary of the Vulnerability Index here

Register for our free webinar to hear our experts discuss the Vulnerability Index

Meet the Energy Transition Experts

Visit energyintel.com to learn more about the Energy Transition Service

Contact Us

To discuss the Vulnerability Index or the Energy Transition Service:

TJ Conway, Director, Research & Advisory, Energy Intelligence (Washington, DC)

+1 202 662 0702 | tconway@energyintel.com

For further information on this press release or Energy Intelligence:

Christina LaMarca, Head of Marketing (London)

+44 (0)20 7518 2221 | clamarca@energyintel.com

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