Majors are walking away from the Southeast Asian country after government abuses escalate.

This Quarterly Risk Outlook examines the major investment, geopolitical and energy transition-related risks shaping the global oil and gas operating environment in Q1’22 and beyond. As is often the case, political developments are driving the investment risk outlook, led by unrest in Kazakhstan and delayed elections in Libya. Elsewhere, Turkey’s economic woes and elections in Australia, Angola, Brazil, Colombia and the US, among others, will be key aboveground risk drivers in 2022. Tensions with Russia over Ukraine—including the possibility of military action—is the key geopolitical risk, while the US-Iran negotiations, China’s economy and a softening of Turkey’s assertive foreign policy will also be important factors. Meanwhile from a transition risk perspective, government efforts to reduce oil and gas emissions—through efforts like enhanced support for carbon capture and storage (CCS) and the increased use of low-carbon power to fuel upstream operations—are a welcome development.