Companies must thread the needle with their oil and gas investments, balancing the need for more supply with an energy transition that continues apace.

The fallout from the war in Ukraine is transforming Russia’s risk environment, elevating long-term investment, geopolitical and transition risks. While public support for President Vladimir Putin is holding steady, mounting war casualties and failure to achieve key military objectives will elevate risks associated with political instability, especially as the full brunt of economic pain sets in. Russia faces a deep contraction this year and next due to sanctions and capital controls. The Kremlin’s desire to maintain a stable ruble suggests the appetite for further inflationary fiscal support packages may prove limited. The energy sector also faces long-term challenges. Crude output levels may face permanent declines, while Russia will struggle to replace European gas markets with Asian ones. Geopolitically, the crisis is creating a prolonged nadir in Russian-Western relations. However, Moscow’s decade-long global diplomatic engagement proved prudent, with many Latin American, African and ostensible US Mideast allies striving to preserve neutrality and their ties to Russia. Russia’s dependence on Western and East Asian capital and critical tech imports may undercut hydrocarbon adaptation and long-term economic diversification efforts, complicating is ability to meet its nascent transition goals.