Russia is poised to lose some $62 billion next year in revenues from exports of crude oil and petroleum products due to embargoes and lower output.

US relations with key Mideast players are evolving. Strained relations with Saudi Arabia and the UAE look set to improve. US President Joe Biden’s July Mideast trip, originally limited to Israel and the West Bank, will also visit Saudi Arabia, while a new US-UAE defense agreement is likely in the works. This shift is largely due to the likely failure of the JCPOA talks and the recent Opec-plus decision that speeds up quota tapering. As a result, much of Biden’s trip, as well as the “GCC+3” summit in Jeddah, will focus on regional security, especially Iran-backed missile and drone programs.