The UAE's energy minister Souhail al-Mazrouei said his country won't seek a further increase in its Opec-plus production baseline before 2025.

This Quarterly Risk Outlook examines the major investment, geopolitical and energy transition-related risks shaping the global oil and gas operating environment this quarter and beyond. Gabon’s coup and Ecuadorian election results, including the referendum banning some Amazon oil production, are examined in depth. Cyprus’s Aphrodite plan rejection and Russia’s motor fuel export ban as well as other key aboveground risk drivers are also covered. Geopolitically, the growing spillover risks from coups and instability in the Sahel is a key focus area, alongside other developments such as Azerbaijan’s takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh, China’s economic slowdown and easing Iran tensions. Meanwhile, resource nationalism and interstate tensions are growing transition risk drivers.