Indirect nuclear talks between Iran and the US appear to have entered the most critical phase since their start in 2021, but a successful outcome still isn't guaranteed.

European gas market chaos continues to underpin Asian prices, even as the TTF premium has widened since June. But Asian buyer movements in preparation for winter are becoming evident in pricing dynamics, and seasonal Chinese demand could still upend markets later this year. Gas supply solutions remain distant. There is room for some additional non-Russian pipeline supply through existing infrastructure, but other meaningful developments are far off. For all the enablers supporting Eastern Mediterranean developments, aboveground risks continue to generate headwinds.