Although the questionable ability of the world's oil supplies to meet future demand growth is an issue that affects every nation on the planet, the debate on "peak oil" has tended to be a largely Western affair. Much of the anxiety over a potential looming supply crunch is based on projections for rising demand in China, but the country itself seems too preoccupied with the more immediate problems of short-term energy security, high oil prices and supply diversification to worry about the nuances of peak oil theory. The idea of peak oil first entered the public consciousness in China in 1984, when local scientists tried to develop models for predicting future production patterns for the country's oil fields. But it was not until 2004 that it became a regular feature of mainstream debate, as international exchanges with the West intensified and researchers refined their forecasting models for predicting the peak in domestic production.

Peak oil remains a "distant" idea in China, industry sources say. Many Beijing policymakers still subscribe to the traditional view that oil reserves are plentiful, and that the main difficulty is resource access -- a geopolitical rather than a geological problem. So, aside from token shifts in the country's energy mix toward more environmentally friendly fuels, the Chinese leadership is prioritizing security of oil supply over curbing oil demand. Many officials point to technological advances and the emergence of heavy oil and oil sands as proof that global reserves are growing. In the current five-year economic plan, the government is only targeting a reduction of oil consumption's share of the overall energy mix from 21% in 2005 to 20.5% in 2010 -- actual oil demand is expected to grow by 4%-6% per annum during that period. High oil prices are a more pressing concern, however, and Beijing has underwritten a multibillion-dollar spending spree by state oil firms since 2002 to secure equity oil overseas (PIW Jan.15'07,p3). The government is also eagerly looking at fuel substitution and has experimented with biofuels, gas-to-liquids and coal-to-liquids. China's crude imports last year averaged 3.28 million barrels per day, representing 44% of total apparent oil demand of 7.36 million b/d. This proportion is set to rise, moreover, as increases in demand outpace growth in domestic production (PIW Feb.4,p6).

But peak oil theory has gained ground in China in recent years, Chinese academics argue, simply because the debate in the West has become more intense. With historic workhorse fields like Daqing now in decline, the government is well aware that crude reserves will inevitably be depleted, which is one of the reasons for its push toward renewable energy, according to Pang Xiongqi, a professor at the China University of Petroleum in Beijing and founder of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas China. Various academic studies have predicted that China's own oil production will peak at some point between 2015 and 2037, at levels ranging from 3.21 million b/d to 4.74 million b/d -- the Ministry of Land and Resources is forecasting a peak of 4.4 million b/d after 2020. Proven reserves at the end of 2005 -- the latest data available -- were 34.8 billion barrels of crude and 88 trillion cubic feet of gas, but these figures are expected to rise significantly as previously challenging areas in the Tarim, Junggar and Ordos basins are explored using new technology.