High Oil Prices: Causes and Consequences

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High Oil Prices: Causes and Consequences

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Executive Summary: Tighter Fundamentals Will Underpin Higher Oil Prices
	The Sellers' Market is Sustainable
	The Ball Moves Into Opec's Court
	Major Players Will Face New Challenges
	The Set of Opportunities Will Also Expand
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Chapter 1: A New World of Higher Oil Prices
	The Setting
	Purpose and Objectives
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CHAPTER 2: Sustained Oil Demand Growth Sets Market Tone
	Near-term Outlook: Global Demand, 2004-06
	Near-term Overview
	Regional Developments
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Chapter 3: Non-Opec Supply Shows Its Age
	Introduction: Geology Catches Up With Technology
	Former Soviet Union: Engine Sputters But Many Miles Left
	Non-Opec Africa: Taming the Wild West
	South and Central America: Ole
	North Sea: Approaching a Mogul on the Down Slope
	Non-Opec Mideast: Broken Dreams
	Non-Opec Asia: Unquenchable Demands
	Other Europe: Little Brothers Turn Into Old Uncles
	North America: Counter-Trends
	Can Nonconventional Become Conventional?
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Chapter 4: The Ball Moves Into Opec's Court
	Introduction: Opec Calls the Shots
	Saudi Arabia and the Mideast Gulf: Capacity and Control
	Iran and Iraq: The Twin Puzzles of the North Gulf
	Africa's Opec-Three: More Light Oil From the Dark Continent
	Indonesia and Venezuela: Odd Men Out
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Chapter 5: The Medium- and Long-term Outlook
	Similar Assumptions: Different Conclusions
	EIR's Outlook: Market Likely To Remain Tight
	Other Long Medium- to Long-term Market Projections
	Conclusions
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Chapter 6: Implications of High Oil Prices: Challenges and Opportunities
	The Medium-term Landscape: Strong Challenges and New Opportunities
	Exploration and Development Shortfalls
	Upstream Spending: Wrap-Up
	The Refining Sector
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Chapter 7: Impacts on the Oil Industry
	A Sellers' Market
	Exploration and Development: Upward Bound
	Merger and Acquisition Versus Share Repurchases
	Refining Sector Prospects
	Evolution of Global Oil Trade Patterns
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Chapter 8: Conclusion
	Sellers' Market: Likely to Endure
	New Challenges: The Competition Heats Up
	Opportunity Knocks: Upstream as Well as Downstream

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